The Bottom Line
Nice technical breakout on Friday by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its related ETF: DIA! Also, nice breakout by the Russell 2000 Index and its related ETF: IWM!
Measured by percent of S&P 500 stock trading above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, U.S. equity prices are Overbought and peaked in mid-May. Strength in a small number of big cap U.S. stocks (Think MAG 7 and a few Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks) has helped to support broadly based U.S. equity indices.
Continuing weakness in the U.S. Dollar is supporting commodity prices and bitcoin. Nice breakout late last week by U.S. crude oil prices! Their strength was the main reason for gains by the TSX Composite Index.
The TSX Composite Index also benefitted from strength in Canadian bank stocks following recent release of encouraging fiscal second quarter results. S&P /TSX Financials iShares (XFN.TO) and BMO Equal Weight Banks ETF moved to all-time highs.
Earnings news is quiet this week. U.S. focus is on Oracle reporting on Wednesday. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
U.S. economic focuses this week are on May CPI reporting on Wednesday and May PPI reporting on Thursday. Both reports could prove to be “troublesome” for equity and bond markets: Consensus calls for a reversal from their recent downtrend to first signs of an increase.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter generally remained virtually unchanged last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains slipped to 4.9% from 5.0% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 4.1% from 4.0%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 7.2% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increases to 4.7% from 4.6%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains increased last week to 6.3% from 6.2%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.1% from 4.9%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 9.1%, unchanged last week. Consensus for revenue gains also was unchanged at 4.9%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 13.5%, up from 13.4% last week. Consensus for revenue gains remained unchanged at 6.2%.
Economic News This Week
April U.S. Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to be unchanged versus a 0.4% gain in March.
May U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in April. On a year-over-year basis, May CPI is expected to increase 2.5% versus a 2.3% gain in April. Excluding food and energy, May CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in April. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI is expected to increase 2.9% versus a 2.8% increase in April.
May U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.5% drop in April. On a year-over-year basis, May PPI is expected to increase 2.6% versus 2.4% in April. Excluding food and energy, May PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% drop in April. On a year-over-year basis, May PPI is expected to increase 3.0% versus 3.1% in April.
June Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to improve to 52.5 from 52.2 in May.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Quiet week!
Tuesday: GameStop
Wednesday: Oracle
Thursday: Adobe.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 6th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 6th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 6th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes
Dow Jones Industrial Average moved above 42,842.04 and Dow Jones Industrial Average iShares (DIA) moved above $428.65 completing short term reverse Head & Shoulders patterns. Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks moving above intermediate resistance, triggering most of the gains on Friday were Caterpillar (CAT) on a move above $355.33, IBM (to an all-time high) on a move above $269.28, MasterCard (MA) (to an all-time high) on a move above $588.45, Starbucks (SBUX) on a move above $88.51 and Cisco (CSCO) ((to an all-time high) on a move above $66.06.
AirBNB a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $139.84 extending an intermediate uptrend.
U.S. Crude Oil Fund (USO) moved above US$70.27 per barrel completing a double bottom pattern. Benefitting from recent weakness in the U.S. Dollar!
Links offered by valued providers
Big Rally Ahead Should Yield All-Time High on This Index: Tom Bowley
Editor’s Note: Tom is referring to breakout patterns by the Russell 2000 Index and its related ETF: IWM on Friday. IWM moved above 209.27 and 210.13 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern. The pattern is virtually identical to the technical patterns set by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its related ETF: DIA.
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for June 7th
June 7 Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm
What The Trump-Musk Feud Means For Markets: Guy Adami and Dan Nathan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNTgsg93gkU
Markets React to Trump vs Musk Feud: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/06/markets-react-to-trump-vs-musk-feud-mark-leibovit/
Jessica Inskip on What Individual Investors Get WRONG and How to FIX It
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHES2VsCaQ4
Market Call: Javed Mirza’s technical analysis of the markets (June 5, 2025)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulych_aF3TA
June 7, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 7, 2025: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/06/trading-desk-notes-for-june-7-2025/
US Dollar to Remain “Chronically” Firm: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/06/us-dollar-to-remain-chronically-firm-bob-hoye/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.60 on Friday and gained 3.00 last week to 73.40. It remains Overbought
The long term Barometer added 3.20 on Friday and 1.20 last week to 52.20. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.92 on Friday, but gained 4.61 last week to 90.32. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 3.22 to 74.65. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications