The Bottom Line
Volatility spiked in U.S. equity markets on Friday mainly due to the increasing military conflict between Israel and Iran. The VIX Index moved above 20%.
Weakness in the U.S. Dollar to a three year low also contributed to U.S. stock market weakness. Investment dollars are moving away from the U.S.
Economic focus this week is on the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate at 4.50%.
U.S. equities are following their traditional “flat to lower” price trend in the month of June.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter remained virtually unchanged last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains remained at 4.9%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.1%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 7.2%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 4.7% from 4.6%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains slipped to 6.2% from 6.3%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.2% from 5.1%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 9.0% versus 9.1% last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.0% from 4.9%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 13.7%, up from 13.5% last week. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.3% from 6.2%.
Economic News This Week
June Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to improve to -5.90 from -9.20 in May
May U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to drop 0.6% versus a 0.1% gain in April. Excluding auto sales, May Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% increase in April.
May U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to remain unchanged from April at 77.7. May Industrial Production is expected to be unchanged versus unchanged in April.
May Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 1.360 million units from 1.361 million units in April.
Federal Reserve decision on the Fed Fund Rate is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday Consensus calls for no change at 4.50%.
June Philly Fed released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to improve to -1.2 from -4.0 in May.
May U.S. Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to -0.1 from -1.0 in April.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Monday: Lennar
Thursday: Carnival
Friday: Accenture, Darden Restaurants
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 13th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 13th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 13th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for June 14th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Trade Tracker: Bill Baruch’s commodity moves
Trade Tracker: Bill Baruch’s commodity moves – YouTube
Consumer spending slows in May: CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: Steve Leasman
Consumer spending slows in May: CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor – YouTube
Expect the market to catch up to reality later this year, says Dan Niles
Expect the market to catch up to reality later this year, says Dan Niles – YouTube
Bearish Divergence Suggests Caution For S&P 500: Dave Keller
Bearish Divergence Suggests Caution For S&P 500 | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Trading Desk Notes for June 14, 2025: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/06/trading-desk-notes-for-june-14-2025/
This week in money: Rick Ackerman and Mark Leibovit
Technical Notes
WTI Crude Oil and its related ETN: USO moved sharply higher following start of the Israel/Iran conflict
Ditto for TSX Energy stocks and their related ETFs
Major “Oily” energy stocks in the TSX 60 Index that moved above resistance extending an intermediate uptrend included Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor and Cenovus Energy
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.40 on Friday and slipped 1.20 last week to 72.20. It remains Overbought
The long term Barometer dropped 4.00 on Friday and 2.40 last week to 49.80. It remains Neutral.
The short term (20 days) Barometer plunged 25.00 on Friday to 40.40 and down from its mid-May peak at 89.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.84 on Friday, but added 0.46 last week to 90.78. It reached an all-time record high on Thursday at 93.09. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.84 to 76.96 on Friday, but gained 2.31 last week to 76.96. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications