Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 30th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 23 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
The Canadian Dollar recovered 0.07 to US73.16 cents after the Canadian government rolled back its proposed digital service tax on U.S. media companies.
Nvidia added $1.00 to an all-time high at $158.75 returning to become the highest valued stock in the world.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/clip_image0024-6.png "clip_image002[4]")
Walt Disney gained $2.25 to $124.59 after its summer “block buster” summer picture F1 recorded $55 million revenues during its first weekend.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for June 30th
The S&P 500 Index has managed to gain an average of 1.1%, overall, in July, however, only 54% of periods over the past 50 years have produced gains. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/06/27/stock-market-outlook-for-june-30-2025/
Technical Scoop for June 30th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
Next Tech Talk Report
Next report is to be released on Wednesday. Tomorrow, July 1st, marks the 158th anniversary of Canadian Confederation and is a holiday in Canada. Canadian exchanges are closed.
The Bottom Line
All-time highs for the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index were recorded on Friday!
What about a summer rally by U.S. equity indices this year? According to www.EquityClock.com, “The market may be setup for a move higher going into the new
quarter. Stocks have tended to produce gains, on average, between June 27th and July 17th in what is often referred to as the summer rally. The S&P 500 Index has chalked up an average return of 1.39% during this timeframe and has been positive in 70% of the periods over the past 50 years. During years when the market is positive, year-to-date, heading into this seasonally strong period, as is the case this year, the results are slightly better with an average return of 1.56% over the approximately three-week span with only eight times in past 33 instances realizing a decline. There is certainly an improved likelihood of success during this mid-year period of strength ahead with buying demand ingrained. Funds typically flow into the market at the start of the month, quarter, and second half of the year, so long as the market environment remains positive.
After the close on Friday U.S. bank stocks and related ETFs rallied following release of the Federal Reserve’s stress test results on their reserves. Most banks showed a greater than previous result and are expected to receive approval on Tuesday to increase their share buyback programs. Large U.S. Bank iShares (KBE) advanced $1.01 to $56.75.
OOPs! Near the close on Friday President Trump announced end of U.S. trade talks with Canada siting Canada’s extension of its recently introduced digital service tax. The Canadian Dollar quickly dropped 0.40 to US72.97 cents.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter increased slightly during the past two weeks. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains increased to 5.0% from 4.9%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 4.2% from 4.1%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains increased to 7.3% from 7.2%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 4.7%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains increased to 6.4% from 6.2%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains remained at 5.2%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 9.1% versus 9.0% two weeks ago. Consensus for revenue gains slipped back to 4.9% from 5.0%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 13.8%, up from 13.7% two weeks ago. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
June Chicago Purchasing Managers Index released at 9:45 AM EDT is expected to improve to 42.7 from 40.5 in May.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 9:30 AM EDT on Tuesday
May U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip -0.1% versus a 0.4% drop in April.
June ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to improve to 48.8 from 48.5 in May.
June U.S. Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop to 120,000 from 139,000 in May. June Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.3% from 4.2% in May. June Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in May.
May U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to $69.6 billion from $61.60 billion in April
May Canadian Trade released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected record a $6.00 billion deficit versus a $7.14 billion deficit in April
May U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 7.9% versus a 3.7% drop in April.
June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 50.8 from 49.9 in May.
Trading on U.S. exchanges closes at 1:00 PM EDT on Thursday.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Tuesday: Constellation Brands
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 27th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 27th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 27th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
S&P 500 Index moved above 6,147.43 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Industrial SPDRs (XLI) moved above $145.12 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking resistance and extending an intermediate uptrend included Amazon, Booking Holdings, Nike, Intel, Intuit, ANSYS, Walt Disney, Morgan Stanley, GE Aerospace and Emerson Electric.
International iShares breaking to all-time highs extending intermediate uptrends included EAFE iShares, Eurozone iShares, Germany iShares, Italy iShares and Japan iShares
TSX 60 stocks moving above resistance extending an intermediate uptrend included Sun Life Financial and Magna International.
Links offered by valued providers
Tech Hits ALL TIME HIGH — Is a Fed Rate Cut Next? Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ycp3-3cPp8o
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for June 28th
June 28th Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm
Bullish Brian Belski: U.S. Exceptionalism is Alive and Well | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5m9dx05aGw
Pullbacks & Reversals: Stocks Setting Up for Big Moves! Mary Ellen McGonagle
Pullbacks & Reversals: Stocks Setting Up for Big Moves! – YouTube
Tech Stock Rally Is Just Beginning, Wedbush’s Ives Says
Tech Stock Rally Is Just Beginning, Wedbush’s Ives Says – YouTube
Dan Niles: Still expecting good Q2 earnings season with markets at these levels
Dan Niles: Still expecting good Q2 earnings season with markets at these levels – YouTube
5 BEST Stocks to BUY in July 2025
5 BEST Stocks to BUY in July 2025 – YouTube
Cryptocurrency Space: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/06/cryptocurrency-space-mark-leibovit/
The Myth About Lower Interest Rates” Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/06/the-myth-about-lower-interest-rates-bob-hoye/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.40 on Friday and gained 5.80 last week to 73.00. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday and gained 5.80 last week to 55.20. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.29 on Friday and dropped 1.68 last week to 83.57. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and added 2.81 last week to 77.00. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications