The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on second quarter earnings reports released by companies in the U.S. Financial Services sector.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
The second quarter earnings season is off to a good start: 20 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date. 71% reported earnings above consensus and 81% reported revenue above consensus.
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter changed slightly last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains slipped to 4.8% from 5.0%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained unchanged at 4.2%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 7.3%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 4.8% from 4.7%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains increased to 6.5% from 6.4%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.3% from 5.2%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth slipped to 9.0% from 9.1%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 5.0%
For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increase to 13.9% from 13.8%, Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
June U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% increase in May. On a year-over year basis, June CPI is expected to increase 2.6% versus 2.4% in May.
July Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to improve to -7.80 from -16.00 in June.
June Canadian Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus 0.6% in May.
June U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% increase in May. Excluding food and energy, June PPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus 0.1% in May.
June U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to remain unchanged from May at 77.4%. June Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.1% versus -0.2% in May.
Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.
July Philly Fed released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4 versus -0.4 in June.
June U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.9% decline in May. Excluding auto sales, June U.S. Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% drop in May.
June U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 1.290 million units from 1.256 million units in May.
June Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 61.4 from 60.7.
Selected Earning News This Week
Second quarter results ramp up this week: Another 42 S&P 500 companies (including six Dow Jones Industrial Average companies) are scheduled to report. Focus is on the Financial Services sector with 10 companies scheduled to report on Tuesday and Wednesday. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report this week.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for July 12th (includes an interview with Don Vialoux)
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
Technical Scoop for July 14th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
Why We Remain Bullish on Oil and Gas Despite Summer Setbacks: Ninepoint Partners
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7Irpkx2ADo
3 Stocks Worth A Closer Look: Stephanie Link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlT1hpqHybo
S&P 500 Pullback Coming? What You Need to Know! Keith Richards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqYM3nWLgq4
20% Rally in Gold Primed and Ready! TheTechnicalTraders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQKkk9UdjMw
These 25 Stocks Drive The Market – Here’s How And Why I Review Them Before Every Trading Week: Grayson Roze
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG8pdJmtmdo
What Happens Next for the S&P 500? Pick Your Path! David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFcbvQJTVhM
Crude Prices Vulnerable Due To Weak Demand And Growing Global Stocks (Especially In The US):.Josef Schachter
Macro Updates for Dog Days of Summer 2025: Danielle Park
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/macro-updates-for-dog-days-of-summer-2025/
The CappThesis Market Strength Indicator: What It’s Telling Us Now
The CappThesis Market Strength Indicator: What It’s Telling Us Now | CappThesis | StockCharts.com
Is BRICS Proposed Digital Currency on Shaky Ground? Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/is-brics-proposed-digital-currency-on-shaky-ground/
Comments by Ross Clark, Eric Hadik, Mark Leibovit and Hilliard MacBeth
Technical Notes for Friday
Silver iShares (SLV) moved above $33.87 to a 13 year high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until the end of August. See: seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Oil Services ETF (OIH) moved above $251.32 extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 6.40 on Friday and 11.00 last week to 68.40. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.00 on Friday and 1.80 last week to 62.40. It remains Overbought
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 0.94 on Friday and 6.10 last week to 80.75. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend has been established.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and down 5.35 last week to 80.75. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications