The Bottom Line
Here comes equity market volatility! Lots of market moving news impacting North American equity markets this week including:
- FOMC and Bank of Canada’s decisions on interest rates on Wednesday. No changes in U.S. and Canadian administered rates are expected, but traders will watch closely for potential timing for future rate reductions in the Fed Fund Rate and Bank of Canada Rate.
- A peak in the frequency of quarterly corporate results by major Canadian and U.S. companies. Results to date have been impressive. Focuses this week are on reports by Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday and ExxonMobil and Chevron on Friday.
- Tariff Day on Friday. Look for favourable equity market responses prior to Friday by nations that reach a deal with Trump at a favourable rate. Thereafter, caveat emptor!
The U.S. equity market is following its traditional upside move to the end of July during post U.S. Presidential election years: strength to the end of July followed by a brief correction until the end of September. A major reason for following this trend this year is that corporate results in the U.S. in the third quarter have been “front run” in the second quarter by tariff negotiations. Look for the traditional pullback in August and September when corporate revenue and earnings gains stall. Resumption of an uptrend in the fourth quarter is expected.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
The second quarter earnings season continues to surprise: 170 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date with 80% reporting earnings above consensus and with 80% reporting revenues above consensus.
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter increased significantly again last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains jumped to 6.4% from 5.6%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 5.0% from 4.4%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains increased to 7.6% from 7.4%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 5.1% from 4.9%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains increased to 7.0% from 6.8%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.6% from 5.4%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 9.6% from 9.3%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.3% from 5.1%.
For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth slipped to 13.9% from 14.0%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
Annualized U.S. second quarter real GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 2.4% versus a 0.5% drop in the first quarter.
Bank of Canada’s Monetary Report is released at 9:45 AM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus for the Bank of Canada’s lending rate for major Canadian banks is unchanged at 2.75%. Press conference is offered at 10:30 AM EDT
FOMC interest rate decision is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate at 4.50%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EDT.
Core June PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in May.
June Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.4 drop in May. June Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.1% drop in May.
May Canadian GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop 0.1% versus a 0.1% drop in April.
July Chicago Purchasing Managers Index released at 9:45 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 41.8 from 40.4 in June.
On Friday, President Trump is scheduled to announce tariffs on U.S. imports from countries that have yet to reach a trade agreement
July Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop to 108,000 from 147,000 in June. July Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. July Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in June.
June U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to be unchanged versus a 0.3% drop in May.
July ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to improve to 49.5 from 49.0 in June.
July Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 61.8 from 60.7 in June.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 164 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (including nine Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). In Canada, nine TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report (indicated as bold)
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for July 26th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Not Too Late to Get Into Cryptocurrencies: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/not-too-late-to-get-into-crypto-currencies-mark-leibovit/
Have the Precious Metals Ended Their Push Higher? Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/have-the-precious-metals-ended-their-push-higher-bob-hoye/
Rare Earths and Copper Leading the Way Higher: Sean Brodrick
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/rare-earths-and-copper-leading-the-way-higher-sean-brodrick/
WTI Weakens As New EU Sanctions On Russia Lack Effectiveness. Crude Likely To Breach US$60/b In Coming Weeks: Josef Schachter
Momentum Leaders Are Rotating — Here’s How to Find Them: Tom Bowley
Momentum Leaders Are Rotating — Here’s How to Find Them – YouTube
Stocks Careening Toward a Tough August: 3-Minute MLIV
Stocks Careening Toward a Tough August: 3-Minute MLIV – YouTube
John Zechner’s outlook on North American Large Cap Stocks (July 24, 2025)
John Zechner’s outlook on North American Large Cap Stocks (July 24, 2025) – YouTube
"Brace for Impact:" Mag 7 Earnings, Tariff Talks & Trade Deadlines Next Week: Schwab Network
"Brace for Impact:" Mag 7 Earnings, Tariff Talks & Trade Deadlines Next Week – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 7/25/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFOeS4ELhpU
Technical Notes for Friday
Global Timber iShares (WOOD) moved above $76.19 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until year end. See seasonality chart at www.equityclock.com
Goldman Sachs (GS) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $726.00 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $330.09 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
DoorDash (DASH) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $248.74 extending an intermediate uptrend.
DexCom (DXCM) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $87.91 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until the end of August. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until the end of August. See seasonality chart at www.equityclock.com
Intuit (INTU) an S&P 100 stock moved above $789.53 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until October 6th. See seasonality chart at www.equityclock.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.40 on Friday and added 5.80 last week to 73.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 1.80 on Friday and gained 6.40 last week to 67.00. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.47 on Friday and slipped 0.60 last week to71.70. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend resumed on Friday.
The long term Barometer added 0.47 on Friday and gained 1.39 last week to 83.49. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications