Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 1st
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 67 points at 8:35 AM EDT. Index futures responded to news on trade tariffs effective today.
S&P 500 futures dropped an additional 10 points following release of the July U.S. Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Non-farm Payrolls was 100,000 versus a downwardly revised 14,000 in June. Actual was a 73,000 gain. Consensus for the Unemployment Rate was an increase to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. Actual was an increase to 4.2%. Consensus for Average Hourly Earnings was a 0.3% increase versus a 0.2% increase in June. Actual was a 0.3% increase.
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Apple added $4.38 to $211.95 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter results.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/clip_image0014.png "clip_image001[4]")
Amazon dropped $7.14 to $226.97 despite reporting higher than consensus second quarter results. The company also offered third quarter guidance below consensus.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/clip_image0024.png "clip_image002[4]")
Reddit jumped $29.29 to $190.04 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/clip_image0034.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for August 1st
August is a rather flat month for the S&P 500 Index with the large-cap benchmark averaging a gain of a mere 0.2% in this eighth month of the year. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/07/31/stock-market-outlook-for-august-1-2025/
Next Tech Talk Report
Next report will be released on Tuesday, August 5th. Monday (4th) is a Civic holiday in Canada.
Technical Notes
Agribusiness ETF (MOO) moved below $72.63 completing a short term Head & Shoulders pattern.
Meta Platform (META) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $747.90 to an all-time high extending an intermediate downtrend.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) an S&P 100 stock moved below $43.43 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Colgate Palmolive (CL) an S&P 100 stock moved below $84.34 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Accenture (ACN) an S&P 100 stock moved below $271.83 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved below $129.22 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 31st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 31st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 31st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Meta, Microsoft Blow Past Earnings — Are These Stock Next? Tom Bowley
Meta, Microsoft Blow Past Earnings — Are These Stock Next? – YouTube
RBC Capital Markets’ Calvasina: If you look at valuations modeling, market is way over its skiis
Why August could be a tough month for stocks: Yahoo Finance
Why August could be a tough month for stocks – YouTube
Katie Stockton Charts Yields, S&P 500, Bitcoin & $MSFT
Katie Stockton Charts Yields, S&P 500, Bitcoin & $MSFT – YouTube
Inflation higher than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows: Rick Santelli
Inflation higher than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows – YouTube
Tariffs weigh on Fed outlook: Here’s what to know: Steve Leisman
Tariffs weigh on Fed outlook: Here’s what to know – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.40 to 57.20. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.00 to 57.80. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was established.
Short term Barometer plunged 7.40 to 41.20. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged at 65.57. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.94 to 81.60. It remains Overbought.
The short term (20 days) Barometer plunged 10.38 to 41.98
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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August 1st, 2025 at 1:15 pm
Summer market volatility has officially started. 5-7.5% correction into September possible assuming we do not get any more surprises (such as no rate cuts). Hope everyone has polished off their shopping lists.
August 1st, 2025 at 3:31 pm
I agree with Bman,
volatity has started Normally around the week of august 8th we see the low.
but with tariffs that are kicking in and the announcment of tariffs on meds its all to confusing to predict the end of the sell off. To stipulate a 5-7% pullback I’m not sure.
Lets face with the US$ lower by almost 15% to the euro that means the US will pay 30% more for the same product and for the CAD up 5% add the 15% we are talking of 20% and even if Powell drops the rate at 2% they are still talking of 18% increase in price. So that’s my view but hey who am I to predict how deep the coming decline will be. The only thing I know for sure is I have enough dry powder to buy good companies with a nice div.
August 1st, 2025 at 4:40 pm
Bman/Van and Tony,
Interesting to hear that you both are waiting to buy. So not that bearish, just waiting for the usual soft patch end of summer into the fall. I agree that there is more downside, minimum to the 50EMA (~ 6143) on $SPX. But who really knows? I would like to buy more TD, BAM (already have some) and buy back into CNQ (sold recently). What is on your shopping lists? This is an old chart of Ron/BC’s:
https://schrts.co/FVFZmtPw
August 2nd, 2025 at 1:08 am
Hi Paula
My list probably has a bunch of what you may be also considering, mostly Canadian with a few exceptions as the exchange rate USD to CAS I fell could continue to fall (USD continued weaking into 2026);
Bank: CM, RY, TD, BMO, BNS
Precious Metals: NGT, ABX, K, SIL
Miners: TCK.B, IVN, CCO, NTR
Utilities: NPI, PPL, T
Energy: TOU
I will hold off on the oils till late this year or early next to see if the oil inventory surplus happens (likely) as that would give a nice entry for CNQ.
50/50 chance this turns into something bigger if the data goes really south so those on the list have a decent divy and good upside potential into 2026-2027.