The Bottom Line
Despite gains recorded by U.S. equity indices last week, technical evidence of an intermediate peak set in late July continues to accumulate. North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from April to July was prompted by greater (i.e. front end loaded) economic activity prior to launch of tariffs on manufactured products.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
The second quarter earnings season continues to surprise: Another 120 S&P 500 companies released results last week for a total of 450 reports to date: 81% reported earnings above consensus and with 81% reporting revenues above consensus.
Analyst earnings estimates for 2025 for the second quarter increased significantly again last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains increased to 11.8% from 10.3%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 6.3% from 6.0%.
Estimates for the third quarter earnings were lowered slightly. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 7.2% from 7.6%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 5.8% from 5.5%. Analysts are starting to realize that earnings gains in the third quarter were borrowed from the second quarter when the U.S. economic activity was “front end loaded” prior to launch of tariffs.
Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains remained at 7.0%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 6.2% from 5.9%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 10.3% from 9.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.6% from 5.3%.
For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth slipped to 13.3% from 13.6%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. July Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.3% rise in June. On a year-over-year basis, July CPI is expected to increase 2.8% versus a 2.7% increase in June. Excluding food and energy, July CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in June.
U.S. July Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus no change in June. Excluding food and energy, July PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in June.
U.S. July Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.6% gain in June. Excluding auto sales, July Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% increase in June.
August Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to1.8 from 5.5 in July.
U.S. July Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 77.5% from 77.6% in June. July Industrial Production is expected to drop to 0.0% versus a 0.3% gain in June.
U.S. July Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus unchanged in June
August Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to improve to 62.5 from 61.7 in July.
Selected Earnings This Week
Another eight S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (including one Dow Jones Industrial Average stock: Cisco). Three TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report: Barrick Gold, Franco-Nevada and CAE.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 8th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 8th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 8th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
Most of the strength in the S&P 500 Index last week came from the Magnificent 7 stocks (MAGS), up 5.64%. Apple led the group with a 13.33% gain. Weight of the Magnificent 7 stocks in the S&P 500 Index exceeds 55%.
Metals & Mining SPDRs (XME) moved above $78.86 to an all-time high. Benefitting from tariff news!
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving above resistance extending an intermediate uptrend included Dollar General, Monster Beverages (all-time high) and Gilead (all-time high). Seasonal influences for Gilead are favourable until October 21st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Trade Desk (TTD) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $65.55 after reporting less than consensus quarterly results.
Saputo (SAP.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$31.26 to a two year high extending an
intermediate uptrend. Responded to strong fiscal first quarter results.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for August 9th 2025
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
S&P can no longer be considered a broad-based market index, says Greenwich Wealth’s Vahan Janjigian
Investors should react aggressively if market breaks 6,150, says JPMorgan’s Jason Hunter
Investors should react aggressively if market breaks 6,150, says JPMorgan’s Jason Hunter – YouTube
Nuveen’s Saira Malik feels caution about market levels. Here are the risks she’s monitoring
Chart This for December 8th with David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DXyBAWK4lE
Is It Time to be Nervous in the Stock Market? Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/is-it-time-to-be-nervous-in-the-stock-market-mark-leibovit/
Crude Oil Falls >US$5/b From Last Week On Growing Supplies And Weak Summer Demand: Josef Schachter
Liberation Day 2.0? Danielle Park
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/liberation-day-2-0/
Is a Gold Backed Currency Likely Soon? Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/is-a-gold-backed-currency-likely-soon-bob-hoye/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
Note that the 20 day, 50 day and 200 day moving average barometers reached an intermediate peak in or just before the fourth week in July
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.60 on Friday and gained 7.00 last week to 56.80. Intermediate peak was set in the fourth week in July.
The long term Barometer added 1.60 on Friday and gained 3.40 last week to58.40. Intermediate peak was reached in the fourth week in July.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.36 on Friday but gained 6.13 last week to 60.38. It changed last week from neutral to Overbought on a move back above 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.77 on Friday and 2.36 last week to 77.36. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend has been started.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications