The Bottom Line
Technical parameters for North American equity markets were mixed last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite Index and TSX Composite Index managed to set all-time highs. On the other hand, the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) closed below its all-time high set on July 25th and has remained in a trading range between $180 and $188 since the beginning of July. Performances by the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index have been dominated by heavy weights in 10 big cap stocks (Think Magnificent 7 stocks).
Focus this week is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Look for guidance on FOMC policy: Will the Federal Reserve lower the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25% on September 17th or will it postpone until meetings scheduled on October 29th and/or December 10th?
Economic News This Week
U.S. July Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to slip to 1.290 million units from 1.321 million units in June.
Canadian July Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday
FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.
August Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop to 5.9 from 15.9 in July.
U.S. July Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 3.92 million units from 3.93 million units in June.
U.S. July Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to improve to -0.1 from -0.3 in June
Canadian June Retail Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 1.6% versus -1.1% in May
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at 10:00 AM EDT at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Selected Earnings News This Week
The third quarter earnings report season in Canada and the U.S is winding down. Focuses this week are reports by two retail companies that are part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Home Depot on Tuesday and Wal-Mart on Thursday. Other retail company reports scheduled for release include TJX companies, Lowes, Target, Ross Stores and Dollar Tree.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes for Friday
Dow Jones Industrial Average moved above $45,073.63 set on December 4th 2024 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Also, Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs (DIA) moved above $449.98 to an all-time high.
Eurozone iShares (EZU) moved above $60.85 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend
Solar ETF (TAN) moved above $40.35 extending an intermediate uptrend.
AT&T (T) an S&P 100 stock moved above $28.90 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Linde (LIN) an S&P 100 stock moved above $478.72 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Biogen (BIIB) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above$136.84 resuming an intermediate uptrend. Technicals for Biotech stocks and ETFs (including Biogen) are favourable on a real and relative basis until September 21st. See seasonality charts at www.EquityClock.com
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for August 16th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
What Might Destroy Bitcoin’s Value? Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/what-might-destroy-bitcoins-value-mark-leibovit/
US Household Debt Rose by $185 Billion in Q2 2025: Martin Armstrong
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/us-household-debt-rose-by-185-billion-in-q2-2025/
Consumer sentiment comes in at 58.6 vs. 62.5 estimated: Rick Santelli
Consumer sentiment comes in at 58.6 vs. 62.5 estimated – YouTube
Neil Dutta: Housing Recession, Strained Consumers & The AI Fueled Mania
Neil Dutta: Housing Recession, Strained Consumers & The AI Fueled Mania – YouTube
The Fed Cut Playbook: Goldman Sachs
The Fed Cut Playbook – YouTube
Market broadening could happen in second half of the year, says Morgan Stanley’s Aaron Dunn
Low technical indicators mean investors should lean into markets, says Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson
Surprise Sector Surge as Market Leaders Stall! Mary Ellen McGonagle
Surprise Sector Surge as Market Leaders Stall! – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.80 on Friday, but added 2.40 last week to 59.20. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.00 on Friday, but gained 3.20 last week to 61.60. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.95 on Friday and gained 5.02 last week to 65.40. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.00 on Friday, but gained 3.21 last week to 80.57. It remains Overbought
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications