The Bottom Line
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech on Friday morning triggered significant buying: Expectation of a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate at the next FOMC meeting on September 17th triggered purchases of both U.S. equities and bonds. The S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs (DIA) closed at all-time highs. US Aggregate Bond iShares (AGG) broke to a 42 month high.
Economic News This Week
July U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase to 635, 000 units from 627,000 units in June.
July Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected drop 4.0% versus a 9.4% drop in June. Excluding Transportation Orders, July Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.2% gain in June.
Updated annualized second quarter U.S. GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to show a 3.0% gain versus a 0.5% drop in the first quarter.
July PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in June. Core July PCE Price Index also is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in June
July U.S. Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in June. July U.S. Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.3% gain in June.
Canada’s June GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.1% drop in May.
August Chicago PMI released at 9:45 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 45.3 from 47.1 in July
Michigan July Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to fall to 58.6 from 61.7 in June.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Focuses are on NVidia’s report on Wednesday and on major Canadian bank reports released between Tuesday and Thursday.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 22nd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 22nd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 22nd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
Notable ETFs breaking resistance extending intermediate uptrends included S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP), S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY), S&P Bank SPDRs (KBE), Regional Banking SPDRs (KRE) and Global Timber and Forestry iShares (WOOD)
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking resistance extending intermediate uptrends included Travelers, MasterCard, MetLife, Bank of America, Paccar and Alphabet
International equity ETFs breaking to new highs included Mexico iShares (EWW) and China large cap iShares (FXI) to a four year high
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for August 23rd 2025
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Dovish Fed is a green light for equities, small caps
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Dovish Fed is a green light for equities, small caps – YouTube
Experts react to Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: September rate cut could be on the horizon
Crude Oil Falls >US$5/b From Last Week On Growing Supplies And Weak Summer Demand
Should You Go 100% Into Gold? Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/should-you-go-100-into-gold-bob-hoye/
Sectors Shift After Powell’s Speech: Where to Focus Now: Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5GJ0A4Etqc
Is the MAG 7 Bubble Finally Bursting? ValueTrendCanada
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrhQC0NffCE
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – August 23, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdumAEFEylw
This Week In Money: Ross Clark, Mark Leibovit and Tim Wood
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 10.00 on Friday and gained 13.00 last week to 72.20. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer advanced 6.00 on Friday and gained 8.60 last week to 70.20. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 5.69 on Friday and gained 7.11 last week to 72.51. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned up.
The long term Barometer added 3.32 on Friday and gained 4.26 last week to 84.83. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications