Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday August 26th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 5 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 Index recovered 2 points following release of July Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a 4.1% drop versus a 9.4% drop in June. Actual was a 2.8% drop. Excluding transportation orders, consensus was a 0.1% increase versus a 0.2% gain in June. Actual was a 1.1% increase.
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) added $2.79 to $65.55 after the stock was selected to replace Wallgreens Boots (WBA) in the S&P 500 Index
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/clip_image0011-5.png "clip_image001[1]")
Eli Lilly added $10.42 to $705.75 after its weight loss pill cleared its latest trial prior to applying for FDA approval.
Heico gained $4.86 to $310.20 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter results.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/clip_image0031-5.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for August 26th
Commodities are becoming a diversifier to portfolios as technology momentum wanes. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/08/25/stock-market-outlook-for-august-26-2025/
Technical Notes
S&P /TSX Base Metals iShares (XBM.TO) moved above Cdn$21.76 extending an intermediate uptrend. Technical score remained at 6: Intermediate uptrend was extended (Score: 2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains positive (Score: 2). Price remains above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1). Daily Stochastics, Relative Price Index, MACD are trending up (Score: 1).
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Sectors Shift After Powell’s Speech: Where to Focus Now Mary Ellen McGonagle
Sectors Shift After Powell’s Speech: Where to Focus Now – YouTube
Investors can use the September volatility to buy, says Hightower’s Stephanie Link
Investors can use the September volatility to buy, says Hightower’s Stephanie Link – YouTube
This is the time when Wall Street tends to have some ‘indigestion’, says RBC’s Lori Calvasina
Retail sales likely fell 0.8% month-over-month in July: StatsCan
Retail sales likely fell 0.8% month-over-month in July: StatsCan – YouTube
100% chance of September rate cut: Mulberry
100% chance of September rate cut: Mulberry – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 6.40 to 65.80. It remains Overbought
The long term Barometer dropped 3.40 to 66.80. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.74 to 67.77. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.90 to 82.94. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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August 26th, 2025 at 10:21 am
BMO – EPS up 26% YOY with the stock price up 52% YOY and I see the other Cdn banks not raising their PT this morning on BMO implying the valuation is high at around 15x trailing. If you look at a five year chart of ZEB it looks quite stretched not only from the April lows but also the Feb highs. You just don’t know how far they can go before a correction or perhaps they go sideways for a period. The bull case is Trump’s policies accelerating revenues in the bank sector in 2026 and BMO and TD have the most US exposure.
August 26th, 2025 at 4:37 pm
Larry
One does have to wonder what will it take to knock down this market. Scratching my head, who knows maybe its a fed taper tantrum (no cut in Sept). In the meantime the CAD banks look fully valued at 11-12 times 2026 earning so one will need to find bargains elsewhere. It’s not like I have much cash sitting around, but the waiting for the next correction is the most challenging thing to do. Sit on your hands and possibly raise a little cash if some of what you have becomes “expensive”, how un-capitalistic.
August 26th, 2025 at 6:05 pm
Larry/ON and Bman/Van, I agree that it is hard to wait for the correction but September is so close now and that could bring the usual seasonal volatility. I have raised some cash by selling TD – not b/c I don’t want to hold it but b/c I want to have some cash in order to buy a correction. Which would I regret more? Sitting out a correction without much cash to buy or miss out on an incremental higher price? So much of investing/trading is psychology.