The Bottom Line
U.S. equity indices have a history of moving lower in September, particularly during post Presidential Election years.
What about this year? With major U.S. equity indices currently at all-time highs and reaching intermediate and long term overbought levels, chances of at least a shallow correction this September are higher than average. Impact of tariffs on imported goods effective August 29th is expected to slow economic growth significantly in the third quarter.
What about the TSX Composite Index? It also has a history of moving lower in the month of September, particularly during the past 20 periods. Indeed, September is the weakest month in the year! This year, impact of tariffs on Canadian goods exported to the United States is expected to reduce economic growth significantly in the third quarter.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
The second quarter earnings season is winding down: A total of 490 reports from the 500 companies have been released to date: 81% reported earnings above consensus and with 81% reporting revenues above consensus. Analyst estimates for the second quarter increased slightly since our last report on August 11th. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains increased to 11.9% from 11.8%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 6.4% from 6.3%.
Surprisingly, estimates for the third quarter earnings were increased slightly, despite multiple warnings by consumer production companies about the potential impact of tariffs. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains increased to 7.5% from 7.2%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 6.1% from 5.8%.
Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains increased to 7.2% from 7.0%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 6.3% from 6.2%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 10.6% from 10.3% three weeks ago. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.0% from 5.6%.
For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increased to 13.4% from 13.3%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.4% from 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
July U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to drop 0.1% versus a 0.4% drop in June.
August ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to improve to 48.9 from 48.0 in July.
July U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to drop 1.3% versus a 4.8% drop in June.
Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday
Second quarter U.S. Non-farm Productivity released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 2.9% versus a previous 2.4% estimate.
July U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to $67.20 billion from $60.20 billion in June.
July Canadian Trade released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to be a $5.20 billion deficit versus a $5.86 billion deficit in June.
August ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 50.5 from 50.1 in July.
August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 74,000 from 73,000 in July. August Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.3% from 4.2% in July. August Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in July.
August Canadian Employment released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 9,400 versus a $40.8 deficit in July. August Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 7.0% from 6.9% in July.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 29th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 29th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 29th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for August 30th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Dow Jones 53k?! Why Small Caps Surge on Powell’s Rate Cut Hints: Tom Bowley
Note comments on U.S. bank stocks
Dow Jones 53k?! Why Small Caps Surge on Powell’s Rate Cut Hints – YouTube
September worst month since 1950: Detrick
September worst month since 1950: Detrick – YouTube
Moody’s Mark Zandi: Today’s data shows economy is soft & struggling
Moody’s Mark Zandi: Today’s data shows economy is soft & struggling – YouTube
Warning Signs Of The Repo Armageddon?
Warning Signs Of The Repo Armageddon? – YouTube
SPX Pullback as Investors Prepare for September, XLK v. XLU Broad Market Signals
SPX Pullback as Investors Prepare for September, XLK v. XLU Broad Market Signals – YouTube
Cannabis Stocks Get High(er): Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/cannabis-stocks-get-higher-mark-leibovit/
TM: The Fed Now Fears Recession: Danielle Park
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/tm-the-fed-now-fears-recession/
The Power Of AI: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/the-power-of-ai-bob-hoye/
Technical Notes for Friday
Gold ($GOLD) moved above $3,500.00 per ounce to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Gold SPDRs (GLD) moved above $317.63 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Silver ETN (SLV) moved above $35.91 to a 13 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
India ETF (PIN) moved below $25.25 setting an intermediate downtrend.
American Express (AXP) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $329.14 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
JP Morgan (JPM) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $301.29 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until November 11th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Alcoa (AA) moved above $32.22 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until December 29th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.40 on Friday and dropped 7.00 last week to 65.20. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.20 on Friday, but dropped 3.00 last week to 67.20. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.95 on Friday, but dropped 2.84 last week to 69.87.
It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.95 on Friday, but dropped 1.89 last week to 82.94. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications