The Bottom Line
Responses to the August U.S. employment report released on Friday were significant. Lower than consensus Non-farm Payrolls prompted equity prices to move lower and bond prices to move higher. Yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped below support a 4.18% and 4.12% extending an intermediate downtrend. Yield dropped on growing anticipation of a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate by at least 0.25% to 4.25% on September 17th.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Estimates for the third quarter earnings and revenue were unchanged last week. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 7.5%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 6.1%. To date, forty seven companies have issued negative guidance for the third quarter and 54 companies have issued positive guidance.
Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains was unchanged at 7.2%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue growth was unchanged at 6.3%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth remained at 10.6%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.0%.
Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for an 11.5% earnings gain and a 7.1% revenue gain.
Consensus for second quarter 2026 calls for a 12.3% earnings gain and a 6.3% revenue gain.
For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increased to 13.6% from 13.4%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.5% from 6.4%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. August Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in July. Excluding food and energy, August PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.9% increase in July.
July Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% increase in June.
August Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in July. On a year-over-year basis, August CPI is expected to increase 2.9% versus 2.7% in July. Excluding food and energy, August CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in July. On a year-over year basis, core CPI is expected to increase 3.1% versus a 3.1% increase in July
September Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 58.0 from 58.2 in August.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Quiet week ahead!
Changes last week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 5th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 5th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 5th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes for Friday
20 year + Treasury Bond iShares (TLT) moved above $88.11 and $88.54 extending an intermediate uptrend. Responded to the weaker than expected August jobs report!
Global Metals iShares (PICK) moved above $41.51 extending an intermediate uptrend. Helped by higher precious metals prices!
Lithium ETN (LIT) moved above $48.79 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO and WPM) a TSX 60 stock moved above US$103.63 and Cdn$142.82 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Following the price of gold after its break above $3500.00 per ounce last week!
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking intermediate resistance extended uptrends included Micron, Broadcom and Dupont. Seasonal influences are favourable for Dupont until November 5th. See seasonality chart at www.equityclock.com
Lulu Lemon (LULU) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $185.35 extending an intermediate downtrend. The company reported less than consensus quarterly results.
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for September 6th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Jobs report shows labor market is softening, implicates September cut
Rebecca Patterson: Will AI Do More Harm Than Good for U.S. Growth?
Rebecca Patterson: Will AI Do More Harm Than Good for U.S. Growth? – YouTube
CPI will decide rate cuts for Canada, U.S. this year: Davis
CPI will decide rate cuts for Canada, U.S. this year: Davis – YouTube
Jobs Rise Less Than Expected, "Number 1 Data Point of the Month"
Jobs Rise Less Than Expected, "Number 1 Data Point of the Month" – YouTube
Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 7.1%
Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 7.1% – YouTube
America lost jobs for the first time since 2020
America lost jobs for the first time since 2020 – YouTube
American Eagle Shares Busting Out Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/09/american-eagle-shares-busting-out-mark-leibovit/
WTI Prices Vulnerable In The Near Term To Fall Shoulder Season Inventory Build: Josef Schachter
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 9/5/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pK_WSLF4Gxs
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – September 6, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ui5M7nvqpQE
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.67 on Friday, but dropped 4.80 last week to 60.40. It remains Overbought. Peak was reached on July 31st
The long term Barometer added 0.20 on Friday and slipped 0.20 last week to 67.00. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.47 on Friday, but added 2.37 last week to 72.04. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.47 on Friday and added 0.47 last week to 83.41. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
|
|
Equity Clock Publications