Pre-opening Comments for Thursday September 25th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 27 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures slipped 2 points following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for updated U.S. annualized second quarter real GDP report was unchanged at a 3.3% rate versus a 0.5% drop in the first quarter. Actual was an increase to 3.8%. Consensus for August Durable Goods Orders was a 0.5% drop versus a 2.8% drop in July. Actual was a 2.9% gain.
KB Homes dropped $0.66 to $61.72 despite reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues. The company also offered cautious guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/clip_image0011-9.png "clip_image001[1]")
Costco added $0.48 to $945.27 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter results.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/clip_image0021-8.png "clip_image002[1]")
Air Canada is expected to open lower after the company issued a third quarter profit warning.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/clip_image0031-6.png "clip_image003[1]")
CarMax dropped $6.55 to $50.60 after reporting less than consensus fiscal second quarter revenues.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/clip_image0041-3.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for September 25th
The dynamics of supply and demand are conducive to support the price of Oil through its period of weakness heading through the fall. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/09/24/stock-market-outlook-for-september-25-2025/
Technical Notes
Base Metals iShares (XBM.TO) moved above $24.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. The stock responded to the temporary shutdown of Freeport McMoran’s Grasmere operations due to a fatal mine accident.
Energy SPDRs (XLE) moved above $89.91 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Raytheon Technologies (RTX) an S&P 100 stock moved above $161.26 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) an S&P 100 stock moved above $487.26 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Costar (CSGP) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $84.57 completing a double top pattern.
Match (MTCH) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $36.28 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 24th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 24th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 24th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Market’s trajectory remains higher despite potential bumps in the road, says Anastasia Amoroso
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yqQgTzpHUE
Chart Check: S&P 500, Gold & Bitcoin with Carter Worth
Chart Check: S&P 500, Gold & Bitcoin with Carter Worth – YouTube
Canadian Association for Technical Analysis Presentation
Next presentation is this evening at 8:00 PM EDT. Presenter is Don Vialoux. Topic is “Timing the market using fundamental, seasonal and technical analysis”. Everyone is welcome. Not a member? See https://www.canadianata.ca/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.00 to 54.80. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer was unchanged at 63.80. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 0.95 to 70.00. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 1.43 to 85.24. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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September 25th, 2025 at 10:07 am
Pull Back – We were due for a pull back to the 20day MA. SPX has not touched the 50 day MA since it broke through May 1st. That’s quite a run. I would not run for the exits here. This could be it at the 20 day but I would not be surprised should we go down to the 50day and regard that as a buying opportunity. As always you look for what performs best when there is broad selling and so far it looks like the large banks. I’m not into commodity stocks but that is an area holding up really well and maybe I have to get over my bias. The GDP data released this morning was quite strong but an interesting point is that if you stripped out tech spending GDP would be much weaker.
September 25th, 2025 at 12:09 pm
Morning Larry
Agree, looks like we may finally get a buying opportunity with a shallow pullback. The banks have been on fire as well as some of the commodities so they are where I am most interested in loading up for a fall/winter run. Makes you wonder what the CPI data will say as this could further reinforce the next move.
September 25th, 2025 at 6:48 pm
Let’s see what the next few trading days bring us Bman/Van. IMO dips will be bought unless we get some kind of very negative unexpected event.