Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 29th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 32 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Gold futures gained $39.40 to $3,848.00 per ounce in response to a weaker U.S. Dollar and to .U.S. government shutdown fears.
Novo Nordisk dropped $1.84 to $53.77 after Morgan Stanley noted that the company’s test for an Alzheimer treatment is expected to fail.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/clip_image0024-4.png "clip_image002[4]")
Tesla advanced $17.01 to $440.40 in anticipation of launch on Thursday of its latest version of self-driving technology.
Occidental Petroleum gained $0.67 to $48.14 on discussion to sell its chemical unit for $10 billion
![clip_image004[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/clip_image0044-1.png "clip_image004[4]")
Technical Scoop for September 29th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
“Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yum Kippur” (i.e. Sell S&P 500 on September 22nd, buy on October 1st this year) is working once again. Likelihood of the event is compounded by the traditional “hang over” impact on equity and options markets following expiration of September listed options and futures on Friday. Other short term events, that could influence U.S. equity markets this week, include a possible shut down of the U.S. government if Congress is unable to pass a funding bill by October 1st and news released after the close on Friday that President Trump has demanded the firing of Microsoft’s President of Global Affairs.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased earnings estimates slightly last week.
Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 7.9% from 7.7%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 6.3%.
Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings slipped slightly: Earnings growth eased to 7.3% from 7.4%. Revenue growth remained at 6.4%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 10.8% from 10.7%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.1%.
Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 11.7% from 11.6%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.1%.
Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 12.7% from 12.6%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.4%.
For all of 2026, earnings growth increased to 13.8% from 13.7%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 6.6% from 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. August Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to drop 0.1% versus a 0.1% drop in Jully
September Manufacturing ISM released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to improve to 49.1 from 48.7 in August.
U.S. August Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.9% versus a 1.3% drop in July.
U.S. September Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM ED T on Friday are expected to increase 45,000 versus a 22,000 increase in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged from August at 4.3%. September Average Hourly Wages are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in August.
September Non-manufacturing ISM PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from August at 52.0.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 26th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 26th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 26th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes
General Motors (GM) an S&P 100 stock moved above $60.60 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Simon Properties (SPG) an S&P 100 stock moved above $183.19 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Costco (COST) an S&P 100 stock moved below $923.72 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Electronic Arts (EA) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $180.70 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend on reports that the company is near a $50 billion deal to go private.
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for September 27th 2025
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Stock Markets Hit by Rosh Hashanah Effect: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/09/stock-markets-hit-by-rosh-hashanah-effect-mark-leibovit/
Energy Stocks Ready to Break Out? Key Setups to Watch: Joe Rabil
Energy Stocks Ready to Break Out? Key Setups to Watch – YouTube
Rick Rule’s 3 Stocks to Buy Right Now
Rick Rule’s 3 Stocks to Buy Right Now – YouTube
Why the Fed Cut Isn’t a Silver Bullet for Investors: Dan Nathan and Marco Kolanovic
Why the Fed Cut Isn’t a Silver Bullet for Investors – YouTube
A seasonal pullback would be a great reset for the market, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton
A seasonal pullback would be a great reset for the market, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton – YouTube
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – September 27, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEa3IvHv6H8
New Market Leaders Are Emerging – Don’t Miss This Rotation! Mary Ellen McGongle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXjIOhNHf4k
Has the Fed Been Successful at Preventing Recessions? Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/09/has-the-fed-been-successful-at-preventing-recessions-bob-hoye/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 6.20 on Friday and slipped 1.00 last week to 56.40 It remains neutral
The long term Barometer added 2.00 to 63.80 on Friday and gained 1.00 last week to 63.80. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.35 on Friday and slipped 1.03 last week to 71.83. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.47 on Friday and gained 2.10 last week to 86.39, highest level since December 2020. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications