Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report is scheduled for release on Tuesday October 14th
The Bottom Line
The calm before the storm! Frequency of quarterly reports by North American companies reaches a low point this week: Many companies are in the “quiet zone” period prior to release of results. Consensus shows that analysts are expecting lower earnings growth in the third quarter relative to the second quarter when earnings on a year-over-year basis by S&P 500 companies increased 11.5%. During the past two weeks, consensus for S&P 500 earnings growth in the third quarter bottomed near 7.7% and recovered to 8.0%. Technically, momentum indicators for the S&P 500 and TSX Composite remain elevated and have yet to show significant signs of turning down. Indeed, TSX long term Momentum Barometer closed at a five year high on Friday.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts increased earnings estimates slightly again last week.
- Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 8.0% from 7.9%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 6.3%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings remained unchanged at 7.3%. Revenue growth remained at 6.4%.For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 10.9% from 10.8%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.1%.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 11.8% from 11.7%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.2% from 7.1%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth remained at 12.7%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.4%.
- For all of 2026, earnings growth remained at 13.8%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.6%.
Economic News This Week
Unavailable due to the U.S. Federal Government shutdown!
Selected Earnings News This Week
Monday: Constellation Brands
Tuesday: McCormick
Thursday: PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Levi Strauss
Technical Notes
Industrial SPDRs (XLI) moved above $154.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Base Metals ETN (DBB), equal one third weights in copper, zinc and aluminum, moved above $20.98 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Italy iShares (EWI) moved above $52.56 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
FedEx (FSX) an S&P 100 stock moved above $244.20 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until December 14th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Danaher (DHR) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $213.63 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until January 31st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Regeneron (REGN) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $610.45 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Chevron (CVX) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $152.88 completing a double top pattern.
Philip Morris International (PM) an S&P 100 stock moved below $154.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
JPMorgan’s David Kelly: Market rally is ‘a little irrational’ amid deteriorating fundamentals
Oil Glut Fears, Spare Capacity Risks & the Age of Natural Gas
Oil Glut Fears, Spare Capacity Risks & the Age of Natural Gas – YouTube
Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal | Navigating Seasonal Cycles, October 2, 2025: Jake Bernstein
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZmocs7kSUE
This week in money: Ross Clark, Martin Straith, Mark Leibovit
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.60 on Friday and gained 5.00 last week to 61.40. It changed from neutral to Overbought on a recovery above 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 1.00 on Friday and gained 3.60 last week to 67.40. It remained Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.94 on Friday and gained 4.23 last week to 76.06. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and added 0.93 last week to 87.32. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications