The Bottom Line
The S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index are following their traditional pattern in the month of October: Lots of volatility, but no trend.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst earnings and revenue estimates increased significantly last week thanks to a strong start for third quarter results: 12% of companies have reported to date, 86% of exceeded consensus earnings and 85% exceeded consensus revenues. Reports by large cap financial companies were notably higher relative to consensus.
- Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains advanced to 8.5% form 8.0% in the previous week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 6.6% from 6.3%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings increased to 7.5% from7.4%. Revenue growth remained at 6.4%.For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 11.0% from 10.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.2% from 6.1%.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 11.9% from 11.7%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.2%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth increased to 12.8% from 12.7%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 6.5% from 6.4%.
- For all of 2026, earnings growth increased to 13.9% from 13.8%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.6%.
Economic News This Week
Scheduled U.S. economic news this week has been postponed until the Federal Government shutdown is resolved.
Monday: Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey is released at 10:30 AM EDT on Monday
Tuesday: Canada’s September Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday.
Thursday: August Canadian Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 1.0% versus a 0.8% drop in July.
October Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 55.0 from 55.1 in August.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 90 companies (i.e.15% of S&P 500 companies) are scheduled to report this week. One TSX 60 company is scheduled to report: Rogers Communications.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
The Hindenburg Omen Is Flashing Again… Should You Be Worried? David Keller
The Hindenburg Omen Is Flashing Again… Should You Be Worried? – YouTube
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for October 18th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
The Bubble Question: Goldman Sachs
10 Small-Cap Stocks Set to BREAK OUT! Tom Bowley
10 Small-Cap Stocks Set to BREAK OUT! – YouTube
Expect more volatility the next few weeks: Portfolio manager: BNN
Expect more volatility the next few weeks: Portfolio manager – YouTube
Why Would Anybody Sell Gold Yet? Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Liz Thomas
Why Would Anybody Sell Gold Yet? – YouTube
S&P500 Rebounds, But Will It Last | Weekly Market Recap, October 17 2025: Tom Bowley (Note seasonality comments)
S&P500 Rebounds, But Will It Last | Weekly Market Recap, October 17 2025 – YouTube
Volatility Returns! Here’s Where You Can Still Find Strength: Mary Ellen McGonagle
Volatility Returns! Here’s Where You Can Still Find Strength – YouTube
JP Morgan Boss Worried About Small Banks: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/10/jp-morgan-boss-worried-about-small-banks-mark-leibovit/
Technical Notes for Friday
American Express (AXP) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $348.31 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Gilead (GILD) an S&P 100 stock moved above $120.99 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Turkey iShares (TUR) moved below $32.07 completing a double top pattern.
Charter Communications (CHTR) an S&P 100 stock moved below $251.80 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.40 on Friday and gained 7.20 last week to 45.60. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.
The long term Barometer added 1.60 on Friday and 4.20 last week to 60.80. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.80 on Friday but dropped 14.95 last week to 67.76. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.47 on Friday and dropped 2.80 to 79.91. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications