The Bottom Line
This year, North American equity markets are not following their traditional pattern of seasonal strength from late October to the first week in January. The S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Index have remained in a relative tight trading range since the beginning of October. The equal weighted S&P 500 ETF (RSP) also has traded in a tight trading range, but recorded technical weakness on Friday on a move below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.
North American equity indices normally record higher prices on declining volatility during the mid-October/early January period. That’s not happening this year. Indeed, volatility moved higher last week despite resolution of the U.S. federal government lock down.
Note Tom Bowley’s comment on this scenario: Small Caps Break Down, VIX Surges. What’s Next? See Small Caps Break Down, VIX Surges. What’s Next? (stockcharts.com)
Short term caution for North American equity indices and related equities/ETFs is recommended.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst earnings and revenue estimates were virtually unchanged last week: 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported third quarter results to date: 82% exceeded consensus earnings estimates and 76% exceeded consensus revenue estimates.
- Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains remained at 13.1%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 8.3%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings slipped to 7.4% from7.5%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 7.2% from 7.1%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 11.7% from 11.6%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.8%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increased to 13.9% from 13.7%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.9%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. economic data is expected to resume this week now that Federal Government employees have returned to work. Timing for release of U.S. economic news from the U.S. Federal Government has yet to be announced.
Canadian October Housing Starts released at 8:15 AM EST on Monday are expected to slip to 275,000 units from 279,200 units in September.
Canadian October Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% increase in September. On a year-over-year basis, October CPI is expected to increase 2.8% versus 2.7% in September.
FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday
November Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to improve to -1.4 from -12.8 in October.
October U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to remain unchanged from September at 4.06 million units.
Canadian September Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to drop 0.7% versus a 1.0% increase in August
November Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from October at 50.3.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 13 S&P 500 companies (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies) are scheduled to release quarterly results this week. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 15th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Is the Party Over on Wall Street? Mark Leibovit
Is the Party Over on Wall Street? – HoweStreet
Volatility Returns: Stocks Sink, Gold Firms, Bitcoin Wobbles: Martin Straith
Volatility Returns: Stocks Sink, Gold Firms, Bitcoin Wobbles – HoweStreet
IEA Pivot, Natural Gas Momentum & Why Peak Supply Is Now Reality: Ninepoint Partners
IEA Pivot, Natural Gas Momentum & Why Peak Supply Is Now Reality – YouTube
Top 5 Market Metrics Every Trader Should Watch: Grayson Roze
Top 5 Market Metrics Every Trader Should Watch – YouTube
How to Protect Yourself from Major Market Crash: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/11/how-to-protect-yourself-from-major-market-crash-bob-hoye/
Fed Jitters Shake the Market – Where are Investors Finding Shelter?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Tdz0QQhG9U
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – November 15, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwkn2PnXmXE
Technical Notes for Friday
Consumer Discretionary SPDRs (XLY) moved below $228.68 completing a double top pattern.
JD.COM (JD) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $29.90 extending an intermediate downtrend.
DocuSign (DOCU) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $66.35 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $133.69 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Breakouts on Friday by TSX 60 stocks included Hydro One (H.TO) on a move above Cdn$53.67 to an all-time high, TC Energy (TRP.TO) on a move above Cdn$77.26 to an all-time high and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) on a move above Cdn$46.41.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.80 on Friday and slipped 0.40 last week to 43.60. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 on Friday and gained 1.80 last week to 57.80. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.47 on Friday, but added 1.41 last week to 59.43. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 0.47 on Friday and gained 1.42 last week to 79.25. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications