The Bottom Line

Focuses this week are on interest rate decisions announced on Wednesday by Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Consensus calls for no change in the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate to major Canadian banks and a 0.25% drop in the Fed Fund Rate to 3.75%.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst earnings and revenue estimates increased slightly from the last report two weeks ago:

• Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings gains increased to 7.7% from7.5%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 7.5% from 7.3%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth slipped to 11.9% from 12.2%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.9% from 6.8%.
• Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for a 12.2% earnings increase, unchanged from two weeks ago. Revenue gains were increased to 8.0% from a 7.9% gain.
• Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 13.6% from 13.3%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.1% from 7.0%
• Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings calls for a 13.6% earnings gain and a 6.3% revenue gain.
• Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings calls for a 17.5% earnings gain and a7.1% revenue gain.
• For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increased to 14.5% from 13.9%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 7.1% from 6.9%.

Economic News This Week

Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is released at 10.00 AM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change at 2.25% for its lending rate to major banks. Press conference is scheduled at 10:30 AM EST.

FOMC’s interest rate decision is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% drop in the Fed Fund Rate to 3.75%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EST.

Canada’s Trade Balance for September released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to recover to $-4.30 billion from $-6.32 billion in August.

U.S. Trade Deficit for September released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to $65.50 billion from $59.60 billion in August.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 5^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 5^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 5^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Technical Notes for Friday

Canadian Dollar ($XDC) moved above US72.00 cents following release of Canada’s October employment report: The Canuck Buck responded to a better than expected increase in employment in October by 53,500 and a reduction in the Unemployment Rate to 6.5% from 6.9%.

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) moved above $192.30 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until February 9^th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com

Energy SPDRs (XLE) moved above $46.46 and $46.63 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until April 12^th. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com

Capital One Financial (COF) an S&P 100 stock moved above $230.95 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

US Bancorp (USB) an S&P 100 stock moved above $51.66 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Lulu lemon (LULU) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $186.91 completing a double bottom pattern.

Links offered by valued providers

Mike’s Money Talks for December 6^th

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/

The Silent Warning in Stocks — And the One Group Breaking Higher: Julius de Kempenaer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYGEAVv5igI

Natural Gas Supercycle? Eric Nuttall & Range Resources CEO Break Down LNG, AI & Supply Constraints: Nine Point Partners

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z-WcFpRxh8

Top Trades As Market Ready For PCE And A Fed Rate Cut, Here’s The Institutional Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV-xFBAGDCY

Japanese Bond Market Worrying Wall Street: Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/12/japanese-bond-market-worrying-wall-street-mark-leibovit/

A Financial Nuclear Bomb is About to Explode: Tim Wood

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/12/a-financial-nuclear-bomb-is-about-to-explode-tim-wood/

Housing Bubble #2: Robert Campbell

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/12/housing-bubble-2/

Several Sectors of US Economy Already in Recession: Bob Hoye

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/12/several-sectors-of-us-economy-already-in-recession-bob-hoye/

This Week in Money: Ross Clark, Victor Adair, Rick Ackerman

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/12/gold-silver-copper-bitcoin-ai-stock-markets-victor-adair-rick-ackerman-ross-clark-this-week-in-money/

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.00 on Friday and dropped 4.20 last week to 55.00. It remains Neutral.

The long term Barometer added 1.80 on Friday and gained 0.80 last week to 62.40. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.27 on Friday fell 6.63 to 64.93 last week to 64.93. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 1.42 last week to 82.46. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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