The Bottom Line
Fourth quarter earnings reports released to date by S&P 500 companies have been a pleasant surprise. Analysts quickly revised earnings estimates higher for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for the next three quarters in 2026.
Equity price responses to fourth quarter earnings reports were less encouraging. Selling on news on Friday was notable despite the good earnings news. The S&P 500 is showing short term technical resistance at 7,000, typical for a major equity index when reaching an important new “round number”.
Intermediate and long term momentum indicators for the S&P 500 and TSX Composite Index peaked in the second week in January. They remain Overbought and show early signs of turning down.
According to www.EquityClock.com, “Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has been unchanged, on average, in February with the frequency of positive results equally unimpressive at 54%”.
The TSX Composite Index is struggling. Last week, it began to underperform the S&P 500 Index, unusual for this time of year.
Short term caution in North American equity markets is recommended.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst earnings and revenue estimates were raised significantly last week thanks to higher than consensus fourth quarter results released by most of the MAG 7 companies: 33% of companies have reported quarterly results to date.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings gains was raised to 11.9% from 8.2% last week. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 8.2% from7.8%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings gains increased to 13.2% from 12.4%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.3% from 7.2%.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for an 11.7% earnings increase, up from an 11.2% increase last week. Revenue gains increased to 8.4% from 8.3%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 14.9% from 14.5%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.5%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 15.2% from 14.8%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.8%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains dropped to 15.4% from 18.4. Revenue gains slipped to 7.3% from 7.4%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains slipped to 14.3% from 14.7%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.3%.
Economic News This Week
January ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase to 48.4 from 47.9 in December.
January ADP Non-farm Employment released at 8:15 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 45,000 from 41,000 in December
January Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase to 55,000 from 50,000 in December. January Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged from December at 4.4%. January Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 3.6% versus a 3.8% increase in December
February Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 54.0 from 56.4 in January.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Quarterly results from 127 S&P 500 companies (including four Dow Jones Industrial Average companies) are scheduled for release. Quarterly results from four TSX 60 companies are scheduled for release
*TSX 60 companies are bolded
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 30th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 30th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 30th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes
Verizon (VZ) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $41.34, $44.21 and $44.32 to a five year high setting an intermediate uptrend. The company reported higher than consensus fourth quarter results and offered favourable guidance. AT&T (T) also responded favourably to Verizon’s news.
Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $27.41 completing a double top pattern.
Take Two Interactive (TTWO) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $227.25 and $216.34 completing a double top pattern.
NetEase (NTES) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $128.48 completing a double top pattern.
Restaurant Brands International (QSR.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$91.55 and Cdn$90.24 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern
Metro (MRU.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$90.38 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Money Talks for January 31st by Michael Campbell
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Ground Hog Day – Does It Affect the Markets? Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/01/ground-hog-day-does-it-affect-the-markets-mark-leibovit/
Long Gold and Long Stocks: Goldman Sachs
Long Gold and Long Stocks – YouTube
In Praise Of Record Profits! Ed Yardeni
In Praise Of Record Profits! – YouTube
A Violent Reversal Day and the Market Signals You Don’t Want to Ignore: David Keller
A Violent Reversal Day and the Market Signals You Don’t Want to Ignore – YouTube
Trump threatens to tariff, ‘decertify’ Canadian aircraft in escalating dispute: CBC
Trump threatens to tariff, ‘decertify’ Canadian aircraft in escalating dispute – YouTube
Potential Homebuyers Walking Away at Record Pace: Martin Armstrong
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/01/potential-homebuyers-walking-away-at-record-pace/
Risk Assets Are Under Siege; Beware! Tom Bowley
Risk Assets Are Under Siege; Beware! (stockcharts.com)
Top 10 Charts Revealed | February 2026 Market Shifts: David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKwjWV3DxM
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – January 31, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvYUg7v3Y9o
The Biggest Investing Mistake Right Now: Ignoring Global Markets: ValueTrendCanada
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eDA6CVCKz0
Trading Desk Notes for January 31, 2026:Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/01/trading-desk-notes-for-january-31-2026/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.60 on Friday, but slipped 0.80 last week to 66.60. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.40 on Friday, but slipped 1.60 last week to 67.20. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.80 on Friday and dropped16.05 last week to 65.60. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.38 on Friday and dropped 4.58 last week to 79.36. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications