Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday February 17th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 29 points at 8:35 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures slipped 4 points following release of the February Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase to 10.0 from 7.7 in January. Actual was 7.1.
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US73.22 after release of Canada’s January Consumer Price Index. Consensus was unchanged at a 2.4% annual increase. Actual was a 2.3% increase.
Technology SPDRs (XLK) dropped $1.10 to $138.46 after UBS downgraded the sector from Overweight to Neutral.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/clip_image0011-4.png "clip_image001[1]")
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) advanced $1.86 to $23.35 on news that activist investor Elliott has built a stake in the company.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) added $0.74 to $51.85 after UBS upgraded the stock from neutral to buy. Target was raised to $73 from $51.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/clip_image0031-4.png "clip_image003[1]")
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Job surprise, complicating inflation, exchange-adjusted markets, unbroken topping, precious consolidation. See
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
A surprising favourable January U.S. Consumer Price Index prompted an encouraging recovery by U.S. equity indices on Friday. January CPI increased only 0.2% versus consensus at 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, January CPI increased only 2.4% versus consensus at 2.5% and versus 2.7% in December. Excluding food and energy, the January report on a year-over-year basis was less impressive, up 2.5% versus 2.6% in December.
Analyst responses to fourth quarter S&P 500 results released to date remained favourable. Once again, analysts raised their earnings and revenue estimates for the fourth quarter. Focuses this week are on quarterly reports released on Friday by Wal-Mart, Rio Tinto and Deere
Performance by the U.S. Industrial sector has been impressive thanks to analyst upgrades in the sector. See Tom Bowley’s comments in the following link:
This Sector Is Making Its First Relative Breakout in 8 Years (stockcharts.com)
Economic focus this week is on December Core PCE Price Index released on Friday. This index is the Federal Reserve’s primary indicator for projection the U.S. inflation rate. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for a small increase from November.
Legal focus this week is on a scheduled release of a U.S. Supreme court ruling on Friday. Will the court rule on tariffs? If so, which way? Look for extension of high stock market volatility.
U.S. and Canadian equity indices are following their historic pattern for the month of February:
- Higher than average volatility and no trend for U.S. equity indices plus the VIX Index near 20% and rising.
- Continuation of an intermediate uptrend by the TSX Composite Index until the first week in March.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst earnings and revenue estimates for the fourth quarter increased again last week: 74% of companies have reported quarterly results to date.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings gains was raised to 13.2% from 13.0% last week. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 9.0% from 8.8%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings gains slipped to 13.3% from 13.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.5% from 7.4%.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for an 11.1% earnings increase, down from an 11.3% increase last week. Revenue gains remained at 8.7% .
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains remained at 14.9%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.9%
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 15.6% from 15.4%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.3% from 7.2%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains remained at 15.0%. Revenue gains remained at 7.4%
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 14.4% from 14.1%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.5% from 7.3%.
Economic News This Week
February Empire State Survey released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to improve to 10.0 from 7.7 in January
December U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase to 1.30 million units.
December Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to drop to -2.3 from a 5.3 gain in November.
December U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to ease to $56.0 billion from $56.0 billion in November.
February Philly Fed is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday
Updated Annualized U.S. Fourth Quarter GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to confirm a 2.5% rate versus a 4.4% rate in the third quarter.
December Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.3 versus a 0.3% gain in November. December Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.5% gain in November.
December Core PCE Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.3 versus a 0.2 % increase in November. On a year-over-year basis, the Index is expected to increase 2.9% from 2.8% in November.
December New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to reach 735,000 units.
February Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 57.1 from 57.3 in January.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 57 S&P 500 companies (including one Dow Industrial Average Company: Wal-Mart) are scheduled to release quarterly results this week. Another four TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
* Canadian companies are bolded.
Trader’s Corner
Data includes combined changes for February 12th and February 13th
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 13th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 13th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 13th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Industrials Are In The Midst Of A Powerful Rally – Here’s What You Need To Know!
Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y872vQiv2Uc
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for February 14th
February 14 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
AI Fears Introduce a New Wave of Market Volatility: Here’s How To Combat It Mary Ellen McGonagle
AI Fears Introduce a New Wave of Market Volatility: Here’s How To Combat It (stockcharts.com)
AI Fears Are Driving Rotation as Short Covering Is Fueling the Bounce! Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMd5jalh_Cc&t=76s
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – February 14, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6L6MF84_Ao
Good Economic Data Fails To Save Markets, Huge Warning Sign For Next Week!
VerifiedInvesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAe0Qet6fds
Defensive Sectors Surge as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Warning: David Keller
Defensive Sectors Surge as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Warning (stockcharts.com)
Major Bearish Chart Patterns in Stock Market & Metals: The Technical Traders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zevdbqxoCwo
Large-Cap Dominoes are Falling; XLF Joins the Fray; Money Moves into Utes and Bonds
Arthur Hill
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.60 on Friday, but dropped 5.20 last week to 63.60. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.60 on Friday, but dropped 1.80 last week to 66.60. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.23 on Friday, but dropped 7.84 last week to 74.65. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but dropped 3.77 last week to 79.72. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications