Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 9th
U.S. equity index futures were sharply lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 58 points at 8:30 AM EST.
Index futures responded to a spike in crude oil prices. West Texas Crude Oil jumped $10.00 to a 4 year high at $101.27 per barrel in response to production drops by Middle East countries.
Echostar (SATS) added $3.40 to $109.64, Lumentum (LITE) gained $9.56 to $568.00 and Coherent (COHR) advanced $1.28 to $237.00 on news that the they will be added to the S&P 500 Index on March 23rd
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for March 9th
Stocks at risk of revealing the normal pattern of weakness through the first half of mid-term election years. See:
https://equityclock.com/2026/03/06/stock-market-outlook-for-march-9-2026/
Technical Scoop for March 9th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Risk reflection, oil reliance, job loss, stock sink, gold link, USD jump, yield rise, Hormuz impact, volatility up. See:
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
Start of the war against Iran had a significant negative impact on world equity markets last week. By the end of the week, intermediate term technicals for world equity markets had deteriorated from Overbought to Neutral levels.
Despite international and political influences, analysts raised 2026 cash flow and earnings estimates for S&P 500 and TSX 60 companies.
The VIX Index (also known as the Fear Index) spiked on Friday to 29.49%, a 10 month high. Until the Index shows signs of peaking, North American equity markets will remain volatile.
Seasonal influences for North American markets normally turn favourable in mid- March.
Traders are waiting for technical signs of a short term bottom before committing additional funds into North American equity markets.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.factset.com
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for an 11.5% earnings increase, up from an 11.4% last week. Revenue gains increased to 9.2% from 9.1%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 15.5% from15.4%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.5% from 8.3%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 16.5% from 16.2%. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 7.5% from 7.6%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 15.6% from 15.0%. Revenue gains increased to 7.7% from 7.5%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 15.0% from 14.7%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 7.7%
Economic News This Week
February U.S. Existing Homes Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to ease to 3.85 million units from 3.91 million units in January.
February U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% increase in January. On a year-over-year basis, February CPI is expected to increase 2.4% versus a 2.4% increase in January. Excluding food and energy, February CPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.3% in January. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI is expected to increase 2.5% versus a 2.5% increase in January.
January Canadian Trade is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday
January U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop to $65.3 billion from $70.3 billion in December
January U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to drop to 1.33 million units from 1.40 billion in December.
Update Third Quarter U.S. GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to improve to 1.5% from a previous 1.4%.
January U.S. Personal Spending released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% increase in December. January U.S. Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.5% versus 0.4% in December.
January Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 1.5% versus a 1.4% drop in December.
January Core PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.4% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Core PCE Price Index is expected to increase 3.1% versus a 3.0% increase in December.
February Canadian Employment Report is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday
March Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 55.0 from 56.6 in February.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Nine S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week. One TSX 60 stock is scheduled to release quarterly results: Franco-Nevada.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 6th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 6th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 6th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for March 7th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
STAGFLATION SHOCK: The Negative Jobs Report + Oil Surge Triggering a Market Collapse Verified Investing
STAGFLATION SHOCK: The Negative Jobs Report + Oil Surge Triggering a Market Collapse – YouTube
Even Without War, Markets Would Have Been Bumpy: Mark Leibovit
Even Without War, Markets Would Have Been Bumpy – HoweStreet
Trend Signals in Agriculture ETF; Wheat and Soybeans Turn Up; A Tribute to John Murphy: Arthur Hill
CHART THIS with Dave Keller Friday ALL-MAILBAG edition!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQMtNJCl5Bs
A Tribute To John Murphy (1942-2026)
A Tribute To John Murphy (1942-2026) (stockcharts.com)
Rising Oil Prices, Rising Fear — What the Charts Are Showing Now: Mary Ellen McGonagle
Rising Oil Prices, Rising Fear — What the Charts Are Showing Now (stockcharts.com)
Could New Gulf War Cause Stock Market Crash? Tim Wood
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/03/could-new-gulf-war-cause-stock-market-crash-tim-wood/
Technical Notes for Friday
Corn ETN (CORN) moved above $18.29 completing a double bottom pattern.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) moved above $83.78 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Sector ETFs moving below support setting intermediate downtrends included NASDAQ Biotech iShares (IBB), Dow Jones Transportation iShares (IYT), US Medical Devices iShares (IHI)
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking below support setting intermediate downtrends included Walt Disney (DIS) on a move below $101.02, Lulu lemon (LULU) on a move below $168.39, Bank of New York Mellon (BK) on a move below $112.83, Blackrock (BLK) on a move below $980.32, IDEXX Labs (IDXX) on a move below $600.57, Alphabet (GOOGL) on a move below $296.12 and $296.25
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.40 on Friday and plunged 17.40 last week to 45.40. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.80 on Friday and 9.80 last week to 57.60. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 18.44 last week and 10.14 on Friday. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.46 on Friday and dropped 2.30 last week to 77.88. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend has been set.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications