The Bottom Line
The S&P 500 and TSX Composite Index have a history of reaching a seasonal low in mid-March (with the S&P 500 Index outperforming the TSX Composite until mid-December).What about this year?
- Short term (20 days) momentum indicators for both indices are deeply oversold. On Friday, the S&P 500 indicator dropped to 23.21% and the TSX indicator dropped to 26.73%. An indicator below 40.00% is considered oversold. However, both indicators are trending down and have yet to show significant signs of bottoming.
- U.S. analysts continue to raise their quarterly and annual earnings and revenue 2026 estimates for S&P 500 companies. Gains are projected to accelerate as the year progresses. See consensus estimates in the report below.
- The VIX Index spiked to 31.30% last week and remained elevated on Friday at 27.19%, implying that U.S. equity market risk remains elevated.
Conclusion: North American equity markets are approaching important seasonal lows, but more technical evidence of a low is needed. A significant drop in the VIX Index and a significant recovery by short term momentum indicators will trigger a seasonal buying opportunity. Prior to confirmation of a buying opportunity, caution is advised.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts continued to increase their 2026 earnings and revenue gain estimates last week.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for an 11.6% earnings increase, up from an 11.5% last week. Revenue gains increased to 9.4% from 9.2%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 16.0% from15.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.7% from 8.5%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 16.9% from 16.5%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.9% from 7.5%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 15.9% from 15.6%. Revenue gains increased to 8.0% from 7.7%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 15.3% from 15.0%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 8.0% from 7.7%.
Economic News This Week
March Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday is expected to slip to 4.1 from 7.1 in February.
February U.S. Industrial Production released at 9:15 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.7% increase in January. February U.S. Capacity Utilization is expected to remain at 76.2% set in January.
February U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% increase in January.
January U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.7% drop in December.
FOMC Decision on interest rates is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Federal Reserve chairman Powell heads a press conference at 2:30 PM EST. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 3.50%-3.75%.
March Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop to 11.0 from 16.3 in February.
January U.S. Wholesale Inventories are released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday
January New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to drop to 715,000 units from 745,000 units in December.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Nine S&P 500 companies and one TSX 60 company are scheduled to release quarterly results this week.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/clip_image0024-6.png "clip_image002[4]")
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 13th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 13th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 13th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 14th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Market Proving Dow 50,000 was a Bull Trap: Mark Leibovit
Market Proving Dow 50,000 was a Bull Trap – HoweStreet
Market Breadth Breakdown: Why the Market Has “Bad Breadth” in March 2026: David Keller
Market Breadth Breakdown: Why the Market Has “Bad Breadth” in March 2026 – YouTube
Tom Lee: Equity markets will make their bottom this month: Tom Lee and Cathie Wood
Tom Lee: Equity markets will make their bottom this month – YouTube
GDP SHOCKER: The Economy Is Crumbling Faster Than Expected (Market Warning) Verified Investing
GDP SHOCKER: The Economy Is Crumbling Faster Than Expected (Market Warning) – YouTube
Oil Companies the Big Iran War Winners: Josef Schachter
Oil Companies the Big Iran War Winners – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for March 14, 2026: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/03/trading-desk-notes-for-march-14-2026/
The Warning Sign that the Market is About to Crash: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/03/the-warning-sign-that-the-market-is-about-to-crash-bob-hoye/
March 14, 2026 | This Week in Money: Ross Clark, Eric Hadik and Hilliard Macbeth
Technical Notes
Palladium ETN (PALL) moved below $145.38 and $144.00 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking support setting intermediate downtrends included Copart (CPRT) on a move below $33.81, Lulu lemon (LULU) on a move below $159.25, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) on a move below $464.69
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term (50 day) Barometer added 0.20 on Friday, but plunged 13.00 last week to 32.40. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend remains down
The short term (20 days) Barometer added 1.60 on Friday, but plunged 12.40 last week to 23.20. It remains Oversold. Daily trend remains down.
The long term Barometer (200 day) Barometer slipped 0.40 on Friday, but dropped 7.80 last week to 49.80. It remains Neutral. Daily trend remains down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 6.91 on Friday and plunged 17.97 last week to 39.17. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend remains down.
The short term (20 days) Barometer slipped 0.92 on Friday and plunged 11.06 last week to 26.73. It remains Oversold. Daily trend remains down.
The long term Barometer dropped 0.92 on Friday and fell 4.61 last week to 73.27. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications