The Bottom Line
Here comes the good news! First quarter results by major U.S. corporations start appearing in volume this week: Consensus calls for significant year-over-year revenue and earnings gains. Initial focuses this week are reports by major U.S. banks. Also notable will be reports by Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix on Thursday. The seasonally strong spring season for North American equity markets until the first week in May continues.
The VIX Index dropped below support at 20% on Thursday to a six week low completing a double top pattern, implying that risks related to international concerns (most notably the Strait of Hormuz issue) have passed their peak. Cease fire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled this weekend. Next investor focus this week is likely to be first quarter reports released by major U.S. companies.
Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analysts reduced first quarter 2026 earnings estimates slightly last week. They also increased first quarter revenue estimates as well as increased earnings and revenue estimates for the remainder of 2026.
- Consensus for first quarter 2026 calls for a 12.6% earnings increase, down from a 13.2% increase last week. Revenue gains increased to 9.8% from 9.7%.
- Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 19.7% from19.1%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 10.1% from 9.7%.
- Consensus for third quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 21.8% from 21.2%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.1% from 8.7%.
- Consensus for fourth quarter 2026 earnings gains increased to 19.6% from 19.3%. Revenue gains increased to 9.0% from 8.4%.
- For all of 2026, consensus for earnings gains increased to 17.6% from 17.4%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 9.0% from 8.8%.
Economic News This Week
March U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday are expected to slip to 4.05 million units from 4.09 million units in February
March Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 1.1% versus a 0.7% increase in February.
April Empire State Manufacturing Survey is released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday
Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday.
April Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop to 12.4 from 18.1 in March.
March U.S. Industrial Production released at 9:15 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop 0.1% versus a 0.2% increase in February. March U.S. Capacity Utilization is expected to remain unchanged from February at 76.3%.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Twenty eight S&P 500 companies (including four Dow Jones Industrial Average companies) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 10th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 10th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 10th 2026
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
Taiwan iShares (EWT) moved above $77.25 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Led by strength in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
Lithium ETN (LIT) moved above $78.00 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Broadcom (AVGO) an S&P 100 stock moved above $359.90 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Intel (INTC) an S&P 100 stock moved above $62.30 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks move below support extending an intermediate downtrend included General Dynamics (GD) on a move below $335.76, Autodesk (ADSK) on a move below 215.01, Intuit (INTU) on a move below $347.92, Oracle (ORCL) on a move below $134.78, Verisk (VRSK) on a move below $164.18 and MongoDB (MDB) on a move below $229.60.
National Bank (NA.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$192.36 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Strength in National Bank triggered a gain by BMO Equal Weight Bank ETF (ZEB.TO) above Cdn$62.88 to an all-time high and by TSX Financials iShares (XFN.TO) above Cdn$80.29 to an all-time high.
Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$153.67 extending an intermediate uptrend. Fortis (FTS.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$80.44 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for April 11th 2026
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Strategies to Deal With Market Downturn: Bob Hoye
Strategies to Deal With Market Downturn – HoweStreet
Too Much Focus on Oil Hiding Stock Market Problems: Rick Ackerman
https://www.howestreet.com/2026/04/too-much-focus-on-oil-hiding-stock-market-problems-rick-ackerman/
WARNING: S&P 500 To Reject Resistance! Multi-Year Top For Semiconductors Likely! Verified Investing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPnw3_lAXW4
Pro Picks: Bullish Brian Belski’s Top Stock Picks | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LXCfVnzLzA
Is the stock market headed higher next week? The Technical Traders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_WdhJ_w8Ig
The Market Just Confirmed a Turn; Is This the Start? Mary Ellen McGonagle
The Market Just Confirmed a Turn; Is This the Start? (stockcharts.com)
This Week in Money: Victor Adair, Josef Schachter, John Rubino, Hilliard Macbeth
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.80 on Friday, but gained 12.80 last week to 43.60. It changed last week from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00.
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 6.20 on Friday, but gained 15.20 last week to 66.60. It changed last week from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.80 on Friday, but gained 4.80 last week to 54.20. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.98 on Friday and gained 30.74 last week to 61.54. It changed from Oversold to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
The short term (20 days) Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 20.09 last week to 71.49. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.36 on Friday and was unchanged last week to 71.49. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications