Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday August 24th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 6 points in pre-opening trade.
Equity index futures were virtually unchanged following release of July Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.8% versus a gain of 2.0% in June. Actual was unchanged. Excluding transportation sales, consensus for July Durable Goods Orders was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.3%
Nordstrom plunged $3.00 to $20.25 after the company lowered sales and revenue guidance.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0011-13.png "clip_image001[1]")
Toll Brothers fell $0.86 to $44.77 after the company lowered fourth quarter guidance.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0021-15.png "clip_image002[1]")
La Z Boy added $2.14 to $20.47 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0031-12.png "clip_image003[1]")
Advance Auto Parts plunged $12.61 to $186.44 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings. The company also lowered its 2022 outlook.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0041-12.png "clip_image004[1]")
Royal Bank dropped $1.14 to Cdn$125.35 after reporting less than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings.
![clip_image005[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0051.png "clip_image005[1]")
National Bank slipped $0.69 to Cdn$91.64 despite reporting slightly higher than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings.
![clip_image006[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0061.png "clip_image006[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The broader equity market is breaking down, but energy commodities and stocks are breaking out and that is our opportunity for the secondary period of seasonal strength in this space”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/08/23/stock-market-outlook-for-august-24-2022/
Technical Notes yesterday
Corn ETN $CORN moved above $25.79 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern
Hong Kong iShares $EWH moved below $20.63 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Treasury Bond iShares $TLT moved below intermediate support at $111.85
Verizon $VZ a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $43.76 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Biogen $BIIB a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $204.18
ZOOM $ZM a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $96.11
QualComm $QCOM a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $140.67 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Canadian energy equities responded to higher crude oil and natural gas prices. Cdn Energy iShares $XEG.TO moved above $15.50 resuming an intermediate uptrend. BMO Equal Weight Canadian Oil ETF $ZEO.TO moved above $64.98 resuming an intermediate uptrend. Suncor $SU.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $43.72 resuming an intermediate uptrend. Imperial Oil $IMO.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $62.56 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 23rd 2022
a
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 23rd 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 23rd 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links from valued providers
Mark Hulbert says “September is the worst month of the calendar for the U.S. stock market”.
Glenmede strategist says “Beware of a ‘bear trap’ retreat in stocks after the big summer rally”.
Tom Bowley says “S&P 500 Tumbles Below Key Moving Average”.
S&P 500 Tumbles Below Key Moving Average | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (08.23.22) – YouTube
Vivien Lou Chen says “Disappointing U.S. data has traders considering possibility of a half-point Fed rate hike in September.”
Craig Johnson, CFA CMT of Piper Sandler shares his year-end target for the S&P 500 at 4770
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtqWUaGrsMo
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged at 78.20 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.40 to 37.20 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.04 to 71.85 yesterday. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 0.84 to 40.76 yesterday. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 24th, 2022 at 8:03 am
Energy – XEG – TechTalk notes a new intermediate uptrend and give a technical rating of 6
New Highs Yesterday I am following- TOU, AAV, VET, OXY – Classic cup and handle formation and breakout on TOU.
August 24th, 2022 at 9:22 am
Thanks Larry.
They are also at52 week highs. Especially the more gassy ones. I believe we are in the seasonality period for Nat Gas stocks
August 24th, 2022 at 10:00 am
Dave/AB – Do you have any gas heavy picks that have high exposure to US prices? BIR is the only Cdn one I know and I am not familiar with gas heavy US names outside of LNG which is actually a port facility liquification provider.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:35 am
Hi Larry
BIR is they only one CDN one I’m aware of. All other has AECO exposure pricing. Tonken pretty smart cookie
August 24th, 2022 at 12:58 pm
Here is what Dr.Google says about Nat Gas stocks.
“SWN, RRC, and VET are top for value, growth, and momentum, respectively”
August 24th, 2022 at 1:04 pm
More Google data on Nat Gas stocks:
Natural Gas Stocks with the Most Momentum
Price ($) Market Cap ($B) 12-Month Trailing Total Return (%)
Antero Resources Corp. (AR) 46.02 14.3 234.9
Comstock Resources Inc. (CRK) 20.07 4.7 233.4
Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) 24.17 4.0 183.7
Russell 1000 N/A N/A -5.6
First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) N/A N/A 90.5
Source: YCharts
Antero Resources Corp.: Antero Resources is an oil and natural gas company that explores, develops, and acquires natural gas, NGLs, and oil properties.13
Comstock Resources Inc.: Comstock Resources is an independent oil and natural gas producer. The company is focused on developing drilling opportunities in shale formations.14
Vermilion Energy Inc.: Vermilion Energy is a Canada-based energy producer that explores, develops, acquires, and produces crude oil and natural gas properties. The company announced in late May that it has completed its acquisition of Leucrotta Exploration Inc., whose primary asset consists of 81,000 gross contiguous acres of mineral rights.15
The agreement to acquire Leucrotta was first announced in late March with a net purchase price of CA$477 million ($371 million).1617
August 24th, 2022 at 1:09 pm
BIR.to
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIR.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53692773088&a=1165927026
August 24th, 2022 at 3:24 pm
Thanks RON/BC – VET is the only other one I would consider. I was in and out of VET and should have stayed in. I think BIR, VET and TOU are at the top and then AAV. VET has 35% of its’ operations in Europe.
VET – Production Mix Q2 2022 – 39% priced with reference to WTI, 16% Brent, 29% AECO, 16% TTF and NBP (European, UK).
August 24th, 2022 at 4:40 pm
BIR.to
I have BIR in my portfolio having bought it under $2. I have been killed in the past on Nat Gas stocks with buy-outs & bankruptcies but I stuck with Nat Gas as I considered it cheap. My problem now is not to killed with a sudden price collapse. I realise that BIR is 80% tied to Henry Hub price. Also I realise that .Henry Hub is closely tied to the war in Ukraine. What chart can guide my selling without being taken out with a small down draft. Looking back the MACD chart would tell me to liquidate at $9.70’s or so.
August 24th, 2022 at 6:24 pm
BIR – I think it wants to take out the old high before it corrects from overbought but this will be a consolidation before going further as long as nat gas stays high. You have to be able to handle the volatility which is high on this stock. It can easily correct 10% plus. BIR will be debt free in Q4 which is just around the corner. Div and buybacks coming with all of these stocks.
Tom C – That was a great gain for you.