Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 12th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 12 points in pre-opening trade.
General Electric added $0.26 to $74.30 after announcing plans to spin off its healthcare division in January.
Bristol Myers Squibb gained $4.62 to $74.78 after the FDA approved Sotyktu, a drug for psoriasis.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
PayPal added $1.18 to $97.41 after Deutsche Bank raised its target price from $114 to $140.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The market is providing a number of encouraging signals to suggest that an intermediate-term trend for stocks of higher-highs and higher-lows is underway”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/09/10/stock-market-outlook-for-september-12-2022/
The Bottom Line
Turbulence in world equity markets is typical in the month of September. This year, downside moves in the first week in September were met virtually with equal upside moves last week. Look for turbulence to continue; particularly before the Fed Reserve updates its monetary policy on September 21st. Adding to turbulence is the possibility of a strike by U.S. railway workers at the end of this week
World equity markets historically have moved higher from early October until at least the end of the year. A link below to Larry Williams’ video entitled “Down, then up and away” offers a likely scenario for this year.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Analysts lowered earnings estimates slightly last week. According to www.factset.com third quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase 3.7% (versus previous estimate at 3.8%) and revenues are expected to increase 8.8%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 4.8% (versus previous estimate at 4.9%) and revenues are expected to increase 6.5%. Earnings for all of 2022 are expected to increase 7.9% and revenues are expected to increase 10.8%.
Factset also released preliminary estimates for 2023 showing higher earnings growth, but lower revenue growth than 2022. First quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 7.4% and revenues are expected to increase 6.3%. Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 6.3% and revenues are expected to increase 3.6%. For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 8.2% and revenues are expected to increase 4.5%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. August Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip 0.1% versus unchanged in July On a year-over-year basis, August CPI is expected to increase 8.1% versus a gain of 8.5% in July. Excluding food and energy, consensus is a gain of 0.4% versus an increase of 0.3% in July. On a year-over-year basis, core August CPI is expected to increase 6.1% versus a gain of 5.9% in July.
U.S. August Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to decrease 0.1% versus a decline of 0.5% in July. On a year-over-year basis, August PPI is expected to increase 8.9% versus a gain of 9.8% in July. Excluding food and energy, August PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in July. On a year-over-year basis, core August PPI is expected to increase 7.1% versus a gain of 7.6% in July.
August Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.8% in July. Excluding auto sales, August Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in July.
September Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to -13.90 from -31.30 in August.
September Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 3.5 from 6.2 in August.
August Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to be unchanged from July at 80.3%. August Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of0.6% in July.
July Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.7% versus a gain of 1.4% in June.
September Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 60.0 from 58.2 in August.
Selected Earnings Report This Report
Monday: Oracle
Thursday: Adobe
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 9th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 9th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 9th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Schachter Energy Conference Special Offer
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Links offered by valued providers
Mark Leibovit’s Weekly Comment
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Climate, Geo-Cosmic Events – HoweStreet
Larry Williams says “Down, then up and away”
Down, Then Up, Up, Up & Away | Larry Williams Special Presentation (09.09.22) – YouTube
Greg Schnell asks “Is crypto finally moving higher”?
Is Crypto Finally Moving Higher? | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com
Mike’s Money Talks for September 10th
Mike’s Content (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Tom McClellan discuses “ A rainbow convergence and a Head & Shoulders.”
A Rainbow Convergence and a Head-and-Shoulders | Top Advisors Corner | StockCharts.com
Mary Ellen McGonagle says “The S&P 500 has traded above key resistance. Here is what to do next”.
Victor Adair’s Trading Notes for September 9th
Trading Desk Notes For September 9, 2022 – HoweStreet
Links from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
This Stock is "Exceeding Lofty Expectations" – Uncommon Sense Investor
https://uncommonsenseinvestor.com/historian-the-2020s-could-actually-be-worse-than-the-1970s/
11 Stock Picks That Billionaires Love | Kiplinger
ICYMI | Mike Taylor & Keith McCullough: "The Worst Set-Up (hedgeye.com)
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Note for Friday
Saputo $SAP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $34.25 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Upcoming Event
Using Seasonality to Determine Where We Are in the Economic Cycle (Recession)? and How to Invest
Saturday, September 17, 2022 | 3:00 pm – 3:45 pm EDT
Some leading indicators are hinting that we are on the path towards an economic recession, traditionally an ideal time to abandon risk in portfolios. Jon Vialoux will show you what he’s looking at and how to best position your portfolio using seasonal analysis.
Click on the following registration link to book your FREE spot to our presentation: Register Now
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 9.20 to 66.20 on Friday and 30.60 last week to 66.20. It changed from Oversold to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 3.00 on Friday and 11.20 last week to 39.00. It remains Oversold. Trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 13.08 on Friday and 14.95 last week to 58.65. It remains Neutral. Trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 4.64 on Friday and 4.77 last week to 35.86. It remains Oversold.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications