Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday September 14th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 7 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the U.S. August Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a decrease of 0.1% versus a decline of 0.5% in July. Actual was a decrease of 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, consensus for August PPI was an increase of 8.9% versus a gain of 9.8% in July. Actual was an increase of 8.7%. Excluding food and energy, August PPI was expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in July. Actual was a gain of 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, core August PPI was expected to increase 7.1% versus a gain of 7.6% in July. Actual was an increase of 7.3%.
CSX dropped $0.45 to $31.11 after Bernstein downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0011-6.png "clip_image001[1]")
Nucor dropped $6.78 to $129.32 after lowering third quarter earnings guidance.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0021-8.png "clip_image002[1]")
Johnson & Johnson added $0.55 to $161.88 after announcing a share buyback program valued at $5 billion.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0031-5.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Stay the course with this low volatility bet, despite Tuesday’s abrupt turn”
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/09/13/stock-market-outlook-for-september-14-2022/
Technical Notes for yesterday
Meta Platforms $META a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $154.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Amgen $AMGN a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $227.73 completing a double top pattern.
Dow Inc $DOW a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $47.64 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 13th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 13th 2022
![clip_image002[3]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0023.png "clip_image002[3]")
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 13th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 33.20 to 39.60 yesterday. It changed from Overbought to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.
The long term Barometer plunged 8.80 to 32.00 yesterday. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 17.30 to 55.70 yesterday. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.22 to 34.60 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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September 14th, 2022 at 9:28 am
The market always tanks while I am overseas.
Biden put on oil. Biden said that the US will buy oil to refill the strategic petroleum reserve whenever oil gets down to $80. They are going to have to refill at some point and they are draining it to low levels after selling almost a third of it into since April 21 (refer to Y-Charts). I still prefer nat gas and TOU has perhaps the best chart you can find. TOU also recently updated their guidance for 2023 raising their cash flow estimate by 28%.
September 14th, 2022 at 9:44 am
TOU – New high. VET is ripping higher after revisiting the 50 day MA. IMO the whole sector is set up for a run higher after consolidating since the June high. XEG needs to clear resistance at 16.39.
September 14th, 2022 at 2:35 pm
Here is a Nat Gas stock chart with overlays.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62171486755&a=800438737
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNG&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12676828091&a=673066322
September 14th, 2022 at 2:54 pm
RON/BC – Look at UNG:TRMLF – Over time it’s a wash
September 14th, 2022 at 3:30 pm
Larry/ON
Here it is.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNG%3ATRMLF&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63776088453&a=1250711779
September 14th, 2022 at 5:52 pm
Next week the Fed meets, pundits expect 75 to 100 basis points rise, market expects it, strong yield curve expected next week, therefore bad recession in the works.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=SPY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p26231222931
https://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_index_sp500.html
September 14th, 2022 at 6:10 pm
Canuck2004
Well I hope those interest rates that they pay go sky high so I can lock in some serious interest on my money. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
September 14th, 2022 at 7:22 pm
Ron/BC…CASH ETF pays the best short term growing rate in Canada, 100% liquid, and can be use as collateral for margin….In other words one does not have to sell it in order to buy stocks. One can keep for a while and wait for a screaming buying opportunity.
Also, other ETFs from larger companies: CSAV, PSA and CMR. TDWaterhouse will only let me buy CMR (the only T-Bill ETF); Scotia iTrade I can buy any of them, and there are more, but from smaller outfits that I feel uncomfortable with, HSAV, HISA,NSAV. The first batch do not move much, a penny or two a day, very stable as cash, pay monthly, and as rates rise the monthlies pay an increasing yield. Very flexible in a margin account. I use them all in various accounts, except the last bunch I listed.
As for the markets, I see the charts looking somewhat more bullish, higher highs and higher lows since the June lows, but I don’t trust it. We are still in a Bear Market, trading below the 200DMA in all indexes. The rallies are short covering, followed by more selling.
FED and BOC will not stop 40 year high inflation of 8-10% with a projected 4% rate by the end of the year, the inflation is too systemic. We have had 14 years of below normal rates, with the Fed and BOC flooding the world with cheap money. Too many traders have never seen inflation before or normal interest rates, so they are living in a dream world. As I lived through the 1970s, inflation is very difficult to tame, the FED and BOC will have to be very aggressive if they really want to do the job…..Mid-Terms in November, so the FED may wimp out next week as they don’t meet in October (BOC does though).
As the old saying goes: “DON’T FIGHT THE FED”. As long as rates are moving higher, the markets will struggle. Rates have to move much more higher, while the administrations in the US and Canada are spending money like crazy in a counter-productive measure, working directly against the FED and BOC at cross-purposes. This will not end well….lol. It is pure insanity, but there’s money to be made in a coming wash-out.