Pre-opening Comments for Friday December 2nd
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 60 points in pre-opening trade.
Index future moved strongly lower following release of the U.S. November Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Non-farm Payrolls was an increase of 200,000 versus a gain of 261,000 in October. Actual was an increase of 263,000. Consensus for the November Unemployment Rate was 3.7% versus 3.7% in October. Actual was 3.7%. Consensus for November Average Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in October. Actual was an increase of 0.6% On a year-over-year basis, consensus was an increase of 4.6% versus a gain of 4.7% in October. Actual was an increase of 5.1%.
The Canadian Dollar dropped to US74.11 cents following release of Canada’s November Employment report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase of 10,000 versus a gain of 108,300 in October. Actual was an increase of 10,100. Consensus for the November Unemployment Rate was an increase to 5.3% from 5.2% in October. Actual was a decrease to 5.1%.
Ulta Beauty $ULTA advanced $13.66 to $486.21 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly revenues.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0011-1.png "clip_image001[1]")
Marvell Technology $MRVL dropped $3.20 to $42.20 after lowering guidance.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0021-1.png "clip_image002[1]")
Asana $ASAN fell $2.31 $15.77 after reporting a quarterly loss. The company also lowered guidance.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0031-1.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Treasury yields are breaking levels of long-term rising trendline support as we near the point where overweighting bonds over stocks is likely to become appropriate”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/12/01/stock-market-outlook-for-december-2-2022/
Technical Notes
U.S. Dollar Index ETN $UUP moved below $28.52 extending an intermediate downtrend. Crude oil, base metals and gold prices responded by moving higher.
Gold stocks and ETFson both sides of the border followed a break by the gold bullion ETN $GLD above $166.23. Gold Miners ETF advanced 3.4%. Barrick $ABX.TO moved above Cdn$22.23 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Base metal equities and related ETFs also responded to U.S. Dollar weakness. Lundin Mining moved above $8.41 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Timber iShares $WOOD moved above $77.24 extending an intermediate uptrend.
India ETF $PIN moved above $25.81 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Biotech ETF $BBH moved above 168.37 and $168.48 extending an intermediate uptrend. NASDAQ Biotech iShares $IBB moved above $136.89 extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 stocks extending an intermediate uptrend included Netflix, Altria, Philip Morris International, Meta Platform, Bristol Myers, MasterCard and Procter & Gamble.
NASDAQ 100 stock extending an intermediate uptrend included Mondelez, Nvidia, Fiserv, Intuit, Splunk and Okta
TSX 60 stocks extending an intermediate uptrend included Waste Connections $WCN.TO on a move above 195.05 and Shopify $SHOP.TO on a move above $57.85.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 1st 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 1st 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 1st 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.40 to 91.20. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.40 to 65.00. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.85 to 83.47. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.85 to 58.05. It remains Neutral. Trend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 2nd, 2022 at 10:04 am
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XBB.TO,ZAG.TO,TLT,RSP,IEF,XGB.TO,XCB.TO,SPY,HBB.TO,TDB.TO,$SPXA50R,UUP|D|null
Say when.
December 2nd, 2022 at 12:14 pm
I quote
“Here the white-shoes bankers at RBC are seeking to operate the Canadian division of the world’s great Chinese bank. From a cultural perspective, this ought to be an interesting marriage.
Culture-conflict destroyed Northern Telecom (Nortel) after that hardware manufacturer purchased a multi-billion-dollar software company. At its peak 30 years ago, Nortel traded at a $380 billion market cap, making it the most valuable company in Canada. Nortel had grown to almost 35 percent of the value of the entire TSE 300 Composite Index group of companies. Within a few years of that divisive acquisition, the company went bankrupt. It seems that RBC didn’t learn that lesson.”
December 2nd, 2022 at 2:27 pm
Rol Lew
Nice collection of charts! Thanks.
Speaking of Nortel I recall when it was around it’s peak I was at a Credit Union doing some banking when a lady about 30 was talking to a financial advisor with the door open. I heard the advisor say “well you could sell some of your Nortel”. And the lady said “No,we’ll never sell any of it and just keep buying more every paycheck. She also said they had enough profit with it that both her and her husband could retire now. I often wonder what they are thinking about that now…………
December 2nd, 2022 at 5:44 pm
No market collapse. SPX continues to stick above the 200dayMA. The discussion with Jeremy Siegal on CNBC after the bell was a barn burner. Siegel is quite adamant that inflation is dropping quickly.
XME, XBM – Quite a day
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/12/02/i-did-not-regard-todays-jobs-report-as-hot-hot-hot-says-whartons-jeremy-siegel.html
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:27 pm
Is anybody on board holding TLT. I was planning to buy it. Questions I have what income will I get & when. Will it be ever recalled & at what price? I hold some preferred & they pay quarterly & some have been recalled at the original price or changed to another issue. Thanks in advance for the response
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:25 pm
Muntazir
I dont’ know squat about the fundamentals of TLT other than it rises with falling interest rates and falls with rising interest rates. But the chart shows price did just clear its one year downtrendline which is a bullish event but price did stop at price resistance of 107 and is over bought. A pullback to 102 would be typical here and a breakout above 107 would suggest a much higher price ahead. That’s all I see here……………………(no story to tell)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87948152296&a=874190186
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:27 pm
Hi Muntazir,
I was just reading some of the comments/ conversations re TLT on Yahoo Finance.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT?p=TLT&.tsrc=fin-srch
(There many bond etf’s trading on the TSX)
From other comments on Yahoo Finance, TLT does pay a dividend.
(but that is not the main event, the question is, in 2023-24,
how much of a bond rally might there be, if interest rates come down?)
There are still a few more FED increases to come. Could be TLT will trade lower when those happen. Could be this 6 week rally is just short covering, who knows? It really should not be happening now, Should happen when FED begins to cut, one would think.