Editor’s Note: No pre-opening comment today
Technical Notes
Oil Services ETF $OIH moved below $284.52 completing a double top pattern.
AT&T an S&P 100 stock moved above $19.39 extending an intermediate uptrend.
PayPal a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $71.17 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Cenovus a TSX 60 stock moved below $25.03 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December7th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 7th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 6th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Link offered by a valued provider
Link from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
Investment Outlook 2023 – Uncommon Sense Investor
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.60 to 79.20. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.00 to 56.00. It remains Neutral. Trend is down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.42 to 67.37. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.42 to 47.67. It remains Neutral. Trend is down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 8th, 2022 at 9:46 am
Re:
Vik Says:
December 7th, 2022 at 6:58 pm
“ ‘need to book a profit to make a profit’ (be machine like and trade the charts) “
Agreed. My version of trading the charts is as follows.
DV Tech talk shows this daily chart of Cenovus Energy today with three moving averages.
I have added an macd.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CVE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p06937823660
It appears to be possible to use just the macd histogram crossovers above and below the zero line, as buy and sell signals.
Beginning in June, this chart shows, looks like, 5 sells, and 4 buys. Currently on a sell, since Nov 11th to 17th.
For me, a 4 hour or 195 minute chart with Heiken-Ashi bars are a little bit clearer to use than a daily candlestick chart. The macd is 35, 55, 13. Just one moving average, 80 front weighted average.
With these settings, CVE-to starting in May, appears to show 3 buys and 3 sells. Currently a sell. But many other settings seem to work just as well.
I am not able to day trade, and for most of the year I do not trade at all.
But I am “always” looking. This year I traded CJ-to and VET-to.
No trades currently, but waiting for one in CJ-to.
Vermillion has been a more difficult one using these short term settings.
I use freestockcharts.com.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:57 am
Great post, thank you for the reply.
I also follow VET.TO and CJ.TO very closely and hold both. Both are examples of me having fat profits and seeing it chip away. When I think of selling, I recall the macro factors and company factors (CJ.TO big dividend is safe till $60 oil, unhedged, soon to be debt free and VET.TO: EU gas exposure, major FCF)…meanwhile the price is volatile and pulls back. I think this is a case of me over thinking or falling in love haha
I have been trying to use 3-8-17-34 EMA on charts. Basic idea is that price can use these as support/resistance. Trade in direction of the EMA. If price gets far ahead or runs away from the 8 EMA, take profit. Wait for re-entry when price pulls back and touches and goes back or consolidates. Going in the direction helps to avoid buying against the trend and waiting for pullback or consolidation helps in not buying after the price has run.
CJ.TO : https://schrts.co/jZezekuj weekly with heiken ashi that you use.
VET.T: https://schrts.co/jpIyJhIV
I use stockcharts.com but TD Waterhouse has also recently improved their charting in Advanced dashboard.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:40 am
Oil – Year end is very illiquid causing these price swings seasonally to the downside. I don’t know exactly what causes the illiquidity but it is commented on. A lot of fantastic cash generating companies have pulled back and I would list TOU as an example. AECO gas has been trading at quite good levels. TOU is going to come out with another good quarter when it reports in early Feb and announce another big fat special dividend. The market loves to push everything right to the edge leaving you guessing if it’s going to go over it or recover. I would stick to gas oriented names if worried about WTI crashing. It hasn’t been fun lately to be sure and there is always going to be some uncertainty on WTI until we put in a definite bottom.
December 8th, 2022 at 12:08 pm
VET – Cheap on a PE basis but it has been missing earnings estimates and had a slew of PT cuts in November. Therefore out of favour but huge upside potential if it surprises and puts in a good quarter. Not much of a dividend to support the stock and people want dividends. Q is why don’t they pay a decent dividend?
December 8th, 2022 at 12:42 pm
Larry; great points on TOU. Truly a dividend king…just heard David Baskin on BNN MArket Call mention he likes it. Had not paid much attention to it but looks very compelling. Soon to be debt free and FCF going to shareholders via dividends.
VET; If I’m not mistaken it was once a dividend darling as Ron/BC likes to say. Did a dividend increase in Q2/22. I believe gas is 30% hedged in 2023. I assume since Leucrotta acquisition, focus is less on dividends and now more on reducing debt? Interestingly, Eric Nuttal now biggest shareholder. He has gone back and forth seemingly every month. Did not like reserves, did not like the Leucrota deal, bought, sold, now back in on basis that it is simply to cheap and market has not understood the EU windfall tax situation.
December 8th, 2022 at 2:20 pm
VET, etc, etc,
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VET.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58518719780
Eric Nuttall (I believe) trades on fundamentals, and for good reason (I believe).
He can call up the company CFO and they will talk more or less candidly with him.
We as consumers do not have that power.
I think that is why we resort to looking at charts.
And sure enough, the above chart of VET seems to say that all is not well with that company,
as it has sold down from $38 in August to $24 today. Even on 100 shares that is a loss of $1400, some of which could have been saved by trusting in the MACD histogram, rather than waiting for Eric to tell us what the back story is.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOU.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34747226911
The chart of TOU.to is saying that since July it has had better fundamentals compared to vermillion. But nevertheless, TOU-to has also been on a sell signal since maybe 9 days ago.
If you are “trading the chart”, you should not be long right now. There are other indicators on this chart that might help with that decision.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HOD.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34747226911
“Sell Oil Stocks” via HOD.TO has been a good move since the first week in June,
and lately since 1st week in November.
December 8th, 2022 at 2:31 pm
That was me calling in on BNN. TOU has an active hedging program. It went against them in Q1 but then paid off handsomely in Q3. As of Sept 26% of 2023 production was hedged at 5.26. I would guess they put on some more hedges since then. It really smooths out their earnings and whoever is managing their hedging seems to be doing a good job. Not mentioned by Baskin is TOU’s contract with LNG to supply starting next month and TOU will capture Japan/Korea spot price (JKM) for part of their production. The common assessment of TOU is that it is run by very smart people who buy and hold their own stock. I like Nuttall but he is an uber bull staking everything on the highest volatile names. Pit TOU on the chart against any other energy name you can find and see if you can find something better.