Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 6th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 26 points in pre-opening trade.
Tyson Foods dropped $3.53 to $60.50 after the company reported less than consensus fiscal first quarter revenues and earnings.
Energizer dropped $1.86 to $35.39 after reporting less than consensus fiscal first quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/clip_image0021-3.png "clip_image002[1]")
Newmont dropped $3.16 to $66.70 after announcing a $17 billion bid to purchase Newcrest. Newmont is offering 0.380 shares for each Newcrest share.
Datadog dropped $2.50 to $76.96 after KeyBanc downgraded the stock from Overweight to Sector Weight.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/clip_image0041-3.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The stronger than average payroll report for January may have unleashed the normal seasonal buying demand in the US Dollar for the first quarter”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/02/04/stock-market-outlook-for-february-6-2023/
The Bottom Line
World equity indices recorded a mixed picture last week: U.S. technology and transportation equities and ETFs led the gain despite release of mixed quarterly results while commodity and interest sensitive equities and ETFs led the decline. Analyst continued to lower earnings estimates in 2023 for major North American companies
Lots of cross currents last week! Responses by U.S. equity indices to the FOMC report on Wednesday were strongly positive. Watch for more guidance on monetary policy this week following speeches by individual members of the Committee. Strength by the U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETN on Friday triggered significant weakness in commodity and interest sensitive sectors and Emerging markets equity indices.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Analysts lowered fourth quarter earnings estimates again from our last report on January 30th. According to www.factset.com fourth quarter earnings are expected to decrease 5.3% (versus previous decrease of 5.0%) but revenues are expected to increase 4.3% (versus previous increase of 3.9%). For all of 2022 earnings are expected to increase 4.2% (versus previous increase of 4.4%) and revenues are expected to increase 10.6% (versus previous increase of 10.5%.
Preliminary estimates for 2023 continued moving lower. According to www.factset.com first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 4.2% (versus previous decrease of 3.0%) but revenues are expected to increase 2.0% (versus previous increase of 2.3%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 2.9% (versus previous decrease at 2.4%) and revenues are expected to decrease 0.1% (versus previous increase at 0.1%). Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.4% (versus previous increase of 3.7%) and revenues are expected to increase 1.3% (versus previous increase of 1.4%). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 10.5% (versus previous increase of 10.3%) and revenues are expected to increase 4.0% (versus previous increase of 4.5%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 3.0% (versus previous increase of 3.4%) and revenues are expected to increase 2.5% (versus previous increase of 2.6%)
Economic News This Week
December U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase to $68.4 billion from $61.5 billion in November.
December Canadian Trade Balance released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to reach a surplus of $610 million versus a deficit of 4 million in November.
January Canadian Employment report released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 8,000 versus a gain of 104,000 in December. January Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 5.2% from 5.0% in November.
February Michigan Consumer Confidence released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 64.8 from 64.9 in January.
Selected Earnings News This Week
The U.S. earnings reporting season has reached the half way point Fifty one percent of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date: 70% reported higher than consensus earnings and 61% reported higher than consensus revenues.
Another 95 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (including one Dow Jones Industrial Average company, Walt Disney.
Another six TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Feb.3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Feb.3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Feb.3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
U.S. Dollar Index ETN moved above $27.61 completing a short term double bottom pattern.
Utilities SPDRs $XLU moved below $67.84 extending a short term downtrend.
Duke Energy $DUK an S&P 100 stock moved below $99.16 completing a short term Head & Shoulders pattern.
Coca Cola $KO an S&P 100 stock moved below $59.40 extending a short term downtrend.
ConocoPhillips $COP an S&P 100 stock moved below $108.33 completing a double top pattern.
Regeneron $REGN a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $779.00 to a an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Analog Devices $ADI a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $179.95 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Toronto Dominion $TD.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $91.86 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for February 4th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Rotating Into Technology | Greg Schnell, CMT | Market Buzz (01.31.23)
Rotating Into Technology | Greg Schnell, CMT | Market Buzz (01.31.23) – YouTube
NASDAQ Explodes Higher After Fed | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (02.02.23)
NASDAQ Explodes Higher After Fed | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (02.02.23) – YouTube
Major Market Shift After Fed Comments | Mary Ellen McGonagle | The MEM Edge (02.03.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31raHQWje2M
Cramer‘s game plan for the trading week of Feb. 6
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR5JeU0P550
New Dow Theory Declares Bullish Phase David Keller February 03, 2023
New Dow Theory Declares Bullish Phase | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Growth Stocks Roar into the New Year; This FAANMG Stock is Poised To Go Higher
Mary Ellen McGonagle | February 03, 2023
New Industry Group Golden Cross Indexes and Silver Cross Indexes
Erin Swenlin February 03, 2023
New Industry Group Golden Cross Indexes and Silver Cross Indexes | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com
Link from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
Five Stocks to Invest in AI Boom – Uncommon Sense Investor
Technical Scoop by David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.60 to 69.60 on Friday and 2.80 last week to 69.60. It remains Overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.80 on Friday, but added 4.60 last week to 73.20. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.39 on Friday and 11.02 last week to 67.37. It remains Overbought. Short term trend has turned down.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.69 on Friday and 1.71 last week to70.75. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
|
|
February 6th, 2023 at 8:32 am
Nice to see TD moving up. I hope it’s due to anticipated news that the takeover of First Horizon is near.
February 6th, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Dave/AB
TD.to along with TD has been very choppy for some time now. If it can clear 94 that would be very bullish. Don’t know what to make of a lot of stocks for some time now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23004833270&a=683824460
February 7th, 2023 at 3:40 pm
Ron/BC.
I always enjoyed your charts an note how you adjust your RSI settings.
In StockCharts try adding a Horizental Line ‘overlay’with parameter settings of 80:g,40:g,60:r,30:r, to a RSI 14
This will add a ‘bull’ 80/40 green band and a ‘bear’ 70/30 red band.
Oscilations within the green band denote continuing bull conditions and within red band continuing bear conditions. Also note how a transition from one band to another will mark a change in a stock’s bull/bear condition.
Works well with RSI 14 but RSI 8 gives too many whipsaws for me and RSI 21 is too lagging for this.