Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday August 15th
Equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 30 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT:
Consensus for the August Empire State Manufacturing Survey was a drop of 0.75 versus a gain of 1.10 in July. Actual was a drop of 19.0.
Consensus for U.S. July Retail Sales was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.7%. Consensus for Retail Sales ex auto sales was a drop of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 1.0%.
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US 74.20 cents following release of Canada’s July Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis consensus was an increase of 2.7% versus a gain of 2.8% in June. Actual was an increase of 3.3%.
Discover Financial dropped $5.00 to $97.65 after announcing resignation of its Chief Executive Officer.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0011-7.png "clip_image001[1]")
DR Horton gained $3.70 to $126.98 after Berkshire Hathaway confirmed additional purchase of the stock.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
Home Depot dropped $2.06 to $327.89 despite reporting higher than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings. The company also lowered guidance for the third quarter.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0031-6.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Risk aversion may not be present in the bond or precious metal markets, but we can certainly pick out evidence in the equity and commodity markets”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/08/14/stock-market-outlook-for-august-15-2023/
Technical Notes
Shanghai Composite Index $SSEC moved below 3,144.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Hong Kong iShares $EWH moved below $18.51 extending an intermediate downtrend.
South Korea iShares $EWY moved below $62.48 completing a double top pattern.
VALE $VALE one of the world’s largest base metals producers moved below support at $12.69
Marvell $MRVL a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $56.53 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 14th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 14th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 14th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
BEWARE! The Mega-Caps Are Showing a Bearish Bias | DecisionPoint Trading Room (08.14.23)
BEWARE! The Mega-Caps Are Showing a Bearish Bias | DecisionPoint Trading Room (08.14.23) – YouTube
What is the Fed’s Next Move? Here’s One Thing to Watch | Halftime by Chaikin Analytics (08.14.23)
Interesting Seasonal and Technical Charts
Seasonal Chart Analysis
Analysis of the United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNL) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of July 27 and a Sell Date of October 15 has resulted in a geometric average return of 1.48% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 13 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 9 of those periods. This is a good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 13 years by an average of 19.89% per year.
On the charts, UNL at $11.87 recently moved above $11.94 to complete a base building pattern. Technical score is 6:
Score
Intermediate trend: Up 2
Relative strength Positive 2
Above/Below 20 day Moving Average: Above 1
Daily momentum indicators: Moving Higher 1
Total score 6
Fundamental Note: Units are highly sensitive to news about hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico at this time of year.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.20 to 55.60. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 0.80 to 62.80. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.29 to 54.63. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.20 to 55.07. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 15th, 2023 at 3:35 pm
Larry
Feel like the semi are one of the last areas holding their ground in the market. Not sure after Nvidia reports next week semis will be able to maintain the momentum and join the correction / seasonality. Likely the bears will make a run, to push the S&P down to 4,200 (TSX 19,200-19,400), but longer term it will be the bulls coming back. Based on today’s action TSX could be the index who drops lower than my target. The China economic data seems to be leading us lower and is not likely to change in the next month (could be a black swan for a larger drop). Hoppy siding on my shorts until we hit our targets.
August 15th, 2023 at 5:29 pm
Bman/Van – SPX 4200 is the logical spot at the point of the breakout above the Feb high which would be a further 5.3% drop and you would be more or less meet up with the 200 day MA. You may see it come up short of that spot as RSI gets to oversold. No follow through today on semis. They got caught a little in the overall selloff while NVDA went higher. Probably where Chinese demand will have the greatest effect on is materials which was very weak today. I would think the Commies are burning the midnight oil figuring out what to do. The US economy holds up well right now.