Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 6th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points in pre-opening trade.
Dish Networks dropped $0.19 to $5.30 after reporting a surprising third quarter loss
Berkshire Hathaway added $1.74 to $353.55 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter operating earnings.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/clip_image0021-2.png "clip_image002[1]")
BionNTech gained $1.31 to $97.09 after reporting a surprising third quarter profit
Birkenstock added $0.24 to $41.40 after JP Morgan, Jefferies, Citigroup and Stifel Nicolaus initiated coverage with a Buy rating.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/clip_image0041-1.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
False breakdowns among bonds and stocks in recent weeks have shaken the bearish resolve in the market.
https://equityclock.com/2023/11/04/stock-market-outlook-for-november-6-2023/
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedIvesting.com
The Bottom Line
The strongest period of seasonal strength in the year for North American equity indices from October 27th to January 5th “started with a bang” last week. The S&P 500 Index jumped % and the TSX Composite Index advanced %. Trigger for the advance was news that the Federal Reserve held the Fed Fund Rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% and has no plans to increase the Rate any time soon. Added to the news was release of better than consensus quarterly earnings reports: According to www.Factset.com Eighty two percent of reporting S&P 500 companies released higher than consensus quarterly earnings.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Consensus earnings estimates for the third quarter of 2023 increased again last week. Updated consensus for the third quarter on a year-over-year basis is an earnings increase of 3.7% (versus a previous increase of 2.7%). Third quarter revenues are expected to increase 2.3% (versus previous increase of 3.8%).
Estimates beyond the third quarter were lowered again. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.9% (versus previous increase of 5.3%). Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.5% (versus previous increase of 3.8%). For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 0.6% (versus previous increase of 0.9%). Revenues are expected to increase 2.4%.
The recovery continues into 2024, but at a declining rate from last week. Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 7.1 % (versus previous increase of 7.6%) and a revenue increase of 4.4% (versus previous increase of 4.5%). Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 10.8% earnings increase (versus previous increase of 11.2%) and a 5.1% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.3%). Consensus for all of 2024 is an increase in earnings of 11.9% and a 5.5% increase in revenues.
Bottom up target for the S&P 500 Index set by analysts for the next 12 months is 5,051.85.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
September U.S. Trade released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to be a deficit of $60.30 billion versus a deficit of $58.30 billion in August.
September Canadian Trade is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday. A surplus of $720 million was reported in August.
September Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to be unchanged versus a decline of 0.1% in August
November Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 65.0 from 63.8 in October.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Eight one percent of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date. Another 55 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (Including one Dow Jones Industrial Average company: Disney). Another seven TSX 60 companies are scheduled.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Nov.3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Nov.3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
What Can the VIX Reveal To Us In November 2023? | The Final Bar (11.02.23)
What Can the VIX Reveal To Us In November 2023? | The Final Bar (11.02.23) – YouTube
The economy is losing momentum, says Rosenberg Research founder
The economy is losing momentum, says Rosenberg Research founder – YouTube
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 4th
November 4th Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
New BULLISH THRUST In S&P 500 | The MEM Edge (11.03.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTzCtrRsO-4
Top Ten Charts to Watch in November 2023 | The Final Bar (11.03.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJEInYwIhx8
Is the Correction Over for Stocks? Wyckoff Selections with StockCharts | Power Charting
(Note seasonality study)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0LTtfQUsG0
The Worst-Case Scenario is About to Strike the U.S. Economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taVUDqAVo2w
Do we face the risk of hyperinflation? Bob Hoye
Do We Face the Risk of Hyperinflation? – HoweStreet
Could we see traditional fall market rally? Mark Liebovit
Could We See Traditional Fall Market Rally? – HoweStreet
Treading desk notes for November 4th : Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes For November 4, 2023 – HoweStreet
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
Long term U.S. Treasury Bond iShares $TLT moved above intermediate resistance at $88.17
U.S. Dollar ETN $UUP moved below intermediate support at $29.61.
Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs $DIA moved above intermediate resistance at 341.33.
Eurozone iShares $EZU moved above intermediate resistance at $42.78
US Real Estate iShares $IYR moved above intermediate resistance at $79.82. Responded to lower interest rates
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking above intermediate resistance included Target $TGT on a move above $113.19, Dollar Tree on a move above $115.89, Bank of America on a move above $28.04, Honeywell on a move above $188.29, Advanced Micro Devices on a move above $111.21, Accenture on a move above $414.75 and NetEase on a move above $110.24.
TSX Cap REIT iShares $XRE.TO moved above intermediate resistance at $15.17. Responding to lower interest rates!
TSX 60 stocks breaking above intermediate resistance included Magna International, Pembina Pipelines, Brookfield, Fortis, Gildan Activewear, Kinross Gold, Metro, Power Corp and Telus.
Technical Chart of the Day
Lower U.S. interest rates prompted strength in XLRE. Technical score increased from 0 to 4
Intermediate trend changed from Down to Neutral on a move above $34.97 Score: -2 to 0
Strength relative to the S&P 500 changed from Neutral to Positive: Score: 0 to +2
20 day moving average: Above Score: +1
Daily momentum (Stochastics, RSI, MACD) trending higher: Score: +1
Total Score +4
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 9.20 on Friday and jumped 39.80 last week to 50.40. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 3.20 on Friday and jumped 19.20 last week to 43.80. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Daily trend is up
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer gained 10.13 on Friday and jumped 29.96 last week to 57.71. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 3.52 on Friday and jumped 13.22 last week to 41.41. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Daily trend is up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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November 6th, 2023 at 2:18 pm
$WTIC topped out in the first half of 2022. Price broke below its 200ema in August 2022 and then recleared it in August 2023 after spending one year below. Price bounced back to its Oct 2022 price high in late September and has since sold off to its 200ema once again, falling below its Oct price low. Technicals are weakening and price needs to hold above this level to suggest returning to an uptrend again. Not looking good for Oil. So much for geopolitical events……..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55978238596&a=673066442