Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 11th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points at 8:30 AM EST.
Macy’s jumped $3.01 to $20.40 after Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management offered to acquire the company for $21 per share.
Cigna advanced $34.75 to $293.55 after the company raised its stock buyback program by $10 billion.
![clip_image002[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/clip_image0025-4.png "clip_image002[5]")
Palo Alto added $0.82 to $299.24 after JP Morgan raised its target price from $272 to $326.
CrowdStrike added $0.35 to $242.90 after JP Morgan raised its target price from $230 to $269.
![clip_image004[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/clip_image0045-2.png "clip_image004[5]")
The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on U.S. economic news and its impact on interest rates: November CPI on Tuesday, November PPI on Wednesday, FOMC’s Fed Fund Rate on Wednesday and November Retail Sales on Thursday. If consensus holds, the stage is set for the proverbial Christmas Rally from December 15th to January 5th
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Analysts slightly lowered earnings estimates and slightly raised revenue estimates:
Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 were reduced slightly. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.7% (versus previous increase of 3.0%). Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.2% (versus previous increase of 3.1%). For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 0.7% (versus previous increase of 0.8%). Revenues are expected to increase 2.3%.
The recovery becomes more apparent in the first quarter of 2024 and accelerates as the year progress. Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 6.8 % and a revenue increase of 4.4% (versus previous increase of 4.2%). Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 10.8% earnings increase (versus previous increase at 10.9%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous increase of 5.1%). Consensus for the third quarter calls for a 9.0% increase in earnings and a 5.2% increase in revenues. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for an 18.2% increase in earnings and a 5.7% increase in revenues. For 2024, consensus calls for an 11.8% increase in earnings (versus a previous increase of 11.7%) and a 5.5% increase in revenues (versus a previous increase of 5.5%)
Economic News This Week
U.S. November Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to remain unchanged versus unchanged in October. On a year-over-year basis, November CPI is expected to increase 3.1% versus a gain of 3.2% in October. Excluding food and energy, November CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in October. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI is expected to increase 4.0% versus a gain of 4.0% in October.
U.S. November Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a decline of 0.5% in October. Excluding food and energy, November PPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus no change in October.
FOMC announces its Fed Fund rate at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change at 5.50%.
November Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip 0.1% versus a decline of 0.1% in October. Excluding auto sales, November Retail Sales are expected to slip 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in October.
October Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in September.
December Empire State Manufacturing Survey is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday
November Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 79.1% from 78.9% in October. November Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.2% versus a drop of 0.6% in October.
Bank of Canada Governor Maclem is scheduled to speak at 12:25 PM EST on Friday.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Dec.8th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Dec.8th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Dec.8th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
S&P 500 Index $SPX moved above 4,607.07 on Friday to a 21 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Regional Bank SPDRs $KRE moved above $49.14 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Boeing $BA a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $243.10 to a 32 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.
FedEx $FDX an S&P 100 stock moved above $269.19 to a 30 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Booking $BKNG a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $3,251.71 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Walmart $WMT a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below intermediate support at $151.09
Links offered by valued providers
What Lies Ahead For End of the Year Equities? | GoNoGo Charts (12.08.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3lOPJ24qoQ
Top 10 Charts to Watch December 2023 | The Final Bar (12.08.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s71L5aw3klA
One Of Wall Street’s Top Bulls Says S&P Could Hit 5000 by RBC’s Lori Calvasina
Note comments on Seasonality
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACKBPQ4aDUM
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for December 9th 2023
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Will the S&P 500 Push Above 4600 Before Year-End? David Keller
Will the S&P 500 Push Above 4600 Before Year-End? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
This Combination Makes Trading Next Week VERY Dicey: Tom Bowley
Note comments on a yearend rally.
The Most Successful Base Pattern is Seeing a Pickup in Breakouts; Here Are Two Examples: Mary Ellen McGonagle
Santa Claus Rally Alert: Predicting a 70% Chance of Surge in the Dow Jones This December! Karl Montevirgen DECEMBER 07, 2023
December 8, 2023 | US & Canadian Emission Standards Economy Killers: Bob Hoye
US & Canadian Emission Standards Economy Killers – HoweStreet
Mark Leibovit Dec 7, 2023: The Fed Isn’t as Powerful as Many Think It Is
The Fed Isn’t as Powerful as Many Think It Is – HoweStreet
Tim Wood Dec 7, 2023: Stock Markets in 2024
Stock Markets in 2024 – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/High-jobs-golden-reversal-market-divergences-fallen-energy-some-highs-yield-expectations-Santa-rally.pdf
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.20 on Friday but dropped 3.00 last week to 83.00. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer gained 2.40 on Friday, but slipped 0.20 last week to 66.40. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.76 on Friday, but slipped 1.76 last week to 71.81. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 1.76 on Friday, but dropped 5.73 last week to 50.22.It remains Neural.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications