Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 26^th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged at 8:30 AM EST.

Domino’s Pizza added $26.35 to $460.00 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

Berkshire Hathaway gained $10.88 to $428.10 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

Amazon.com added $0.62 to $175.61 when the stock was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average effective today.

Moderna dropped $1.51 to $94.95 after HSBC downgraded the stock.

 

The Bottom Line

Nvidia was the pleasant surprise last week: It strength following release of “blow out” quarterly results powered the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average to all-time highs. Nvidia extended its parabolic upside move following release of results on Wednesday.

Meanwhile the CNN Fear and Greed Index moved higher to 78 on Friday, an Extreme Greed level. See Fear and Greed Index – Investor Sentiment | CNN

Quietly beyond the focus of North American investors, Europe and Far East equity markets soared last week: Europe iShares gained 1.78% to an all-time high, the Shanghai Composite jumped 4.85% after completing a double bottom pattern on the charts and the Nikkei Average advanced 5.40% to an all-time high set 38 year ago. Equity markets outside of North American continue to offer higher short term risk/reward potential.

Economic focus this week in the U.S. is on the January Core PCE Price Index released on Thursday at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus is calling for a change in monthly trend from down to up. If confirmed, plans for the FOMC to reduce the Fed Fund Rate will be further delayed.

Focus this week in Canada is on fiscal first quarter results released by many of Canada’s largest chartered banks. The market is anticipating an earnings recovery after many of the banks reported a “kitchen sink” fiscal fourth quarter when loan loss provisions were ramped up.

 

Economic News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

January U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday are expected to increase to 675,000 units from 664,000 units in December

January Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to drop 4.5% versus unchanged in December.

Updated U.S. fourth quarter annualized real GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 3.3% versus a gain of 4.9% in the third quarter.

January PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in December. January core PCE Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in December. On a year-over-year basis January core PCE Price Index is expected to increase 2.8% versus 2.9% in December.

January Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.3% in December. January Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of0.2% in December

Canadian December GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in November.

January U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.9% in December.

February ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AN EST on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from January at 49.1.

February Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 79.6 from 79.0 in January.

 

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Feb.23^rd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Feb.23^rd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Feb.23^rd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for February 24^th

Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

 

The Best Technical Indicator for Long-Term Investors: David Keller

The Best Technical Indicator for Long-Term Investors – YouTube

 

How Overextended Are You, QQQ? David Keller

How Overextended Are You, QQQ? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

 

Is Energy About to Undergo a Strong Seasonal Sector Surge? Karl Montevirgen

Is Energy About to Undergo a Strong Seasonal Sector Surge? | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com

 

5 Key Players Higher Markets Depend On: Danielle Shay

5 Key Players Higher Markets Depend On – YouTube

 

NVDA Explodes Higher Lifting US Futures

NVDA Explodes Higher Lifting US Futures – YouTube

 

Canadian banks amid weakening economy: BNNBloomberg

Canadian banks amid weakening economy – YouTube

 

Attention Shoppers, Gold on Sale in Aisle Five: Bob Hoye

Attention Shoppers, Gold on Sale in Aisle Five – HoweStreet

 

Stock Market Way Too Focused on Interest Rates: Mark Liebovit

Stock Market Way Too Focused on Interest Rates – HoweStreet

 

A Tale of Two Cities for Canadian Energy: Josef Schachter

A Tale of Two Cities for Canadian Energy – HoweStreet

 

Trading Desk Notes For February 24, 2024: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes For February 24, 2024 – HoweStreet

 

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/New-highs-yield-slip-oil-pullback-precious-accumulation-potential-top-due-debt-sticky-inflation.pdf

 

Seasonality Chart of the Day: Gold

Technical score for gold bullion in U.S. Dollars increased on Friday from -2 to +2. Seasonal influences are positive until April 27^th

Intermediate trend: Up Score: +2 to +2

Strength relative to S&P 500: Negative Score: -2 to -2

20 day moving average: Moved above Score: -1 to +1

Daily momentum (Stochastics, RSI, MACD) turned higher Score: -1 to +1

Total Score:-2 to +2

 

 

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score -2

 

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: -1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: -1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

 

Changes Last Week

Technical Notes for Friday

China iShares $FXI moved above $24.07 extending an intermediate uptrend.

U.S. Broker iShares $IAI moved above $109.40 extending an intermediate uptrend.

S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks extending an intermediate uptrend included Blackrock on a move above $819.00, Regeneron on a move above $973.99, Clorox on a move above $86.14, Accenture on a move above $375.73 and General Motors on a move above $39.75.

Power Corp $POW.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$39.74 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Pembina Pipeline $PPL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$46.84 extending an intermediate uptrend.

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 3.00 on Friday and gained 7.20 last week to 68.40. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer added 0.60 on Friday and gained 5.60 last week to 76.60. It remains Overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and dropped 4.00 last week to 57.78. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.

The long term Barometer added 0.44 on Friday and slipped 0.88 last week to 59.56. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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