Pre-opening Comments for Friday April 12th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 18 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
JP Morgan dropped $4.03 to $191.40 despite reporting higher than consensus first quarter results.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0011-7.png "clip_image001[1]")
Wells Fargo added $0.59 to $57.28 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter results. Earnings were only 8% lower than the first quarter last year.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0021-8.png "clip_image002[1]")
Advanced Micro Devices dropped $3.08 to $167.42 and Intel dropped $0.75 to $76.88 after China announced plans to remove their microchips from the country’s telecom systems.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0031-6.png "clip_image003[1]")
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0041-2.png "clip_image004[1]")
Technical Notes
Amazon $AMZN a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $188.21 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Most of the gain by major U.S. equity indices yesterday came from two stocks, Amazon and Apple. Apple gained $7.26 to 175.04 after the company previewed new products.
Wells Fargo $WFC an S&P 100 stock moved below $56.37 completing a double top pattern. The company reports first quarter results today.
Bristol-Myers $BMY an S&P 100 stock moved below $50.10 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Regeneron $REGN a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $923.03.
CVS Health $CVS an S&P 100 stock moved below $70.19 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Fastenal $FAST plunged $4.86 to $69.88 after reporting less than consensus first quarter results
Morgan Stanley $MS plunged $4.81 to $86.84 on news that the company is under investigation by multiple regulatory authorities.
Cameco $CCO.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$69.18 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Brookfield Infrastructure $BIP a TSX 60 stock moved below US$27.45 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Canadian Tire $CTC.A.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$128.88 to a 42 month low extending an intermediate downtrend.
Shopify $SHOP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$98.60 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 11th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 11th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 11th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
CPI Inflation Report Shakes Wall Street: Tom Bowley
CPI Inflation Report Shakes Wall Street – YouTube
Short Squeeze Secrets to Crushing the Market: Joe Duarte
Short Squeeze Secrets to Crushing the Market – YouTube
Big Banks Set To Kickoff Q1 Earnings Season: Guy Adami and Carter Worth
Big Banks Set To Kickoff Q1 Earnings Season – YouTube
MoneyTalk – What to expect from the upcoming Canadian federal budget
MoneyTalk – What to expect from the upcoming federal budget – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 2.20 to 58.20. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer dropped another 1.00 to 75.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.68 to 60.27. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned down.
The long term Barometer added 0.45 to 71.43. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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April 12th, 2024 at 10:35 am
More rambling from me.
$CAD – We have a support level around 0.72. I had to laugh seeing JF Tardiff on BNN saying that it is possible for CAD to eventually make its’ way down to 50 cents. In 2002 we got down to 0.63. The 2020 pandemic low was 0.682. I’m pencilling in that number as a target.
April 12th, 2024 at 11:48 am
I dislike the fact our $CDN is often around 35% less than a $USD. That itself causes inflation. Most manufacturing contracts are written $USD payments, commodities and large items like fridge TVs are the same. I feel it’s time we make our $CDN closer to par with the $USD.
April 12th, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Here is a chart of most commodity ETFs with the $SPX also overlaid as a reference. With all the hype of commodities one would think the stock market was left behind in the dust. But overall the $SPX isn’t such a bad investment being so diverse in its makeup. Just how much is one missing by just holding and ETF like SPY or XIU.to. These two seem to be far more consistent in it’s trend than the commodities. Just something to consider…………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76667925892&a=1654488438
April 12th, 2024 at 1:08 pm
The $SPX one year chart sees the Modified MACD just breaking down from its uptrend. The price itself broke its uptrendline in early April. The MODIFIED MACD breakdown tends to see price sell off for about two months.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63699063309&a=1581235834
April 12th, 2024 at 2:48 pm
Hi Dave,
As a consumer I totally agree with you it hurts us so much to spend our vacay in the us, or to make our purchases their.
But at the same time we have to look back when the C$ was at par or higher, imported goods from the US were cheaper to buy in the States then canada. If you recall Apple noticed the disadvantage canadians had and not to penalize its canadian stores set their price to reflect the US price.
For canadian exporters they will be against the idea think of it you get to sell in USD so you get a 30% premium in profits it allows you to lower your price to be more competitive against other countries that deal with US.
April 12th, 2024 at 3:29 pm
Dave& Tony
I’ve been seriously thinking about moving to the U.S. for many years now. Hard to stomach all the B.S.in Canada.
April 12th, 2024 at 4:59 pm
Hi Ron/BC,
I think you’ll find the level of BS in the US about the same as that for Canada, just different subjects. Personally, I like our somewhat smug distinction of not being American. Chacun a son gout.
April 12th, 2024 at 7:03 pm
Brian
N.T.R. (NOT TRADE RELATED)
Yes, they have their issues for sure. And some of which are far more serious than ours. But overall I’d prefer to deal with their issues than ours. But as you say “To each his own.” Or, “Different strokes for different folks.” I was walking today and ahead of me was an old timer in a wheel chair and attached was a large British flag. He was making the point that Canada was just a British colony. He and many others think this. Just talk to one sometime. No respect as we always seem to be sucking the hind teat in most things. I’ve never felt smug about not being American. Jealous & envious perhaps but never smug.
April 12th, 2024 at 7:37 pm
For the record. The US has been the best the world has. It has problems now but the economic model has neve been surpassed and that is why it will remain number one. Anyone who doesn’t believe that can elect to immigrate to where? – China, Russia?
April 12th, 2024 at 7:50 pm
Here is a long term chart of the Canadian dollar. Broke support in 2015 and stayed below this level. This low dollar does give Canada a huge advantage in selling goods to the U.S.
And also for the record Canada has always had the U.S. back in their confrontations.
And Larry/ON makes some very good points…….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW%3A%24USD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26595948472&a=673066368
April 13th, 2024 at 9:57 am
Russian method of competing: The saying is that when the Russians see you building a big nice house while they live in shacks, instead of building a bigger and nicer house for themselves the Russian method of competition is to take steps to burn your house down. There is no way Putin can allow the West to help Ukraine to build their own nice house. The Russians hated that when the West built West Berlin as a showcase next door to the Russian occupied East Germans.
April 13th, 2024 at 4:09 pm
I am very happy to be a Canadian. I don’t even like going to the US for a visit. Aside from changing planes to other destinations, I have not been for more than 20 years. Sure, we have our own racist issues, among other things, but nothing like the US. I am worried that there could be another civil war there if some people don’t like or don’t agree with the upcoming election results.
I have a number of friends who are Americans and have also become Canadians. Some of them would like to give up their American citizenship, which is not an easy thing to do.
Ron/BC, Americans who are also Canadians will have their TFSA taxed which is something to think about. I know how much you like earning 5% rates your TFSA. And I believe you did not pay ~ $30,000 for your hip replacement surgery.
This talk of $CAD has led us down a slippery slope of politics.
April 13th, 2024 at 4:18 pm
RE TFSA investing, I should have provided this link:
https://www.moneysense.ca/columns/ask-moneysense/investing-tips-for-dual-citizens-of-canada-and-the-u-s/
April 13th, 2024 at 5:22 pm
Ron/BC,
Re your comment #3: I think this is about the difference b/t investing and trading. Commodities lend themselves to trading b/c of their historical booms and busts. In hindsight, investing in the SPX would have been a great idea 20 or even 5 years ago or whenever there is panic selling or even legging in during a bear market if you have the confidence that the bull will return. The key is to be willing to hold during draw downs and not be checking your portfolio every minute. That kind of patience is a rare skill. This is a topic that Ciovacco talks about frequently: looking at historical long term returns vs short term drawdowns. He is not promoting buy and hold forever but using technical analysis to determine where to draw the line b/t “volatility you want to ignore and volatility you want to pay attention to”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJp7Uha5oyc
April 13th, 2024 at 5:51 pm
Paula
You are correct as usual. I am a trader by heart and often own nothing in the stock market, just cash. But most people I know want to fall in love with the stock market or a part of it
“until death do us part.” They seem to NEED to be fully invested. I love cash. Just like Scrooge and his money bin, (if you are old enough to recall him.) But trading commodities has it’s time and place just like stocks. But I still haven’t found anything as profitable as buying and selling condos. Even with the B.C. legislation taxing profits it is still a good buy.
April 13th, 2024 at 5:51 pm
Paula
You are correct as usual. I am a trader by heart and often own nothing in the stock market, just cash. But most people I know want to fall in love with the stock market or a part of it
“until death do us part.” They seem to NEED to be fully invested. I love cash. Just like Scrooge and his money bin, (if you are old enough to recall him.) But trading commodities has it’s time and place just like stocks. But I still haven’t found anything as profitable as buying and selling condos. Even with the B.C. legislation taxing profits it is still a good buy.
April 13th, 2024 at 8:03 pm
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
April 14th, 2024 at 11:46 am
Hi Tony
#5
I hear you on the exporters. As I said most of those contracts are in USD. Our importers are getting hit hard. This is where the discrepancy is. Inflation is created by the unbalance of the currencies. It’s high time we think about the importers and the the exporters. Fighting food inflation starts with a closer-to-par currency for instance. Food in the US is much cheaper.
April 14th, 2024 at 10:03 pm
Paula, thank you for sharing the link to Ciovacco – I have found the info very interesting. Much appreciated.
April 14th, 2024 at 11:12 pm
Sharon BC,
You are welcome. Someone else on this board shared this link to Ciovaccocapital.com many years ago. I don’t recall her name at the moment.
April 15th, 2024 at 12:51 am
Paula
It was likely Ana……..just guessing. Haven’t heard from her for sometime.