Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 13th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 10 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Intel added $0.34 to $30.19 after announcing plans to spend $11 billion in Ireland to build a microchip plant.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/clip_image0011-5.png "clip_image001[1]")
Squarespace advanced $4.72 to $42.91 after receiving a purchase offer from a private equity firm for $44.00 per share. Value of the offer is $6.9 billion.
Gamestop jumped $7.44 to $24.90 on a short squeeze.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/clip_image0031-5.png "clip_image003[1]")
Kenvue slipped $0.15 to $20.39 after announcing a secondary offering of 182.3 million shares.
The Bottom Line
All-time highs at the close on Friday for the Europe, Africa and Far East Index (EAFE Index) and its related ETF: EFA! Strength in the Index was bolstered by an all-time high set by Europe iShares (IEV) and by strength in Chinese and South African equity indices. Honorable mention is given to the TSX Composite Index when it touched an all-time high on Friday.
U.S. equity indices also recorded positive returns thanks mainly to a resurgence of the “Fabulous Four” (i.e. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta)
Focuses this week are on U.S. economic news for April: Producer Prices on Tuesday, Consumer Prices and Retail Sales on Wednesday.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Higher than consensus first quarter results released to date prompted analysts to increase their first quarter earnings estimates again. Ninety two percent of S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter results to date. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 5.4% (versus a 5.0% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 4.1%.
Earnings gains accelerate in the second and third quarters, but at a lower than previous rate. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.3% earnings increase (versus 9.6% last week) and a 4.6% increase in revenues (versus a 4.5% increase last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.4% increase in earnings and a 4.9% increase in revenues (versus a previous 4.8% increase).
Earnings gains accelerate further in the fourth quarter, but at a lower than previous rate. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.4% increase in earnings (versus a 17.8% increase last week) and a 5.4% increase in revenues.
For all of 2024, consensus calls for an 11.1% earnings increase (versus previous 11.0% increase) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a 4.9% increase.).
Estimated gains for fiscal 2025 were virtually unchanged. Consensus calls for a 14.0% earnings increase (versus previous 13.9% increase) and a 5.8% revenue increase.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
April U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in March. April Core April Producer Price Index is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in March.
April U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in March. Core April Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in March.
April U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.7% in March.
May Empire State Manufacturing Survey is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday
March U.S. Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to be unchanged versus a gain of 0.4% in February.
April U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 1.410 million units from 1.321 million units in March.
May Philly Fed Index is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday
April U.S. Industrial Production released at 9:15 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in March. April U.S. Capacity Utilization is expected to be unchanged from March at 78.4%
Selected Earnings News This Week
Seven S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (Including three Dow Industrial Average companies: Home Depot, Cisco and Walmart).
No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 10th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 10th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 109th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
CFRA’s Sam Stovall on why he’s raising his S&P 500 12-month price target by 8%
CFRA’s Sam Stovall on why he’s raising his S&P 500 12-month price target by 8% – YouTube
Relative Strength Screams Bullish for This Tech Stock: David Keller
Relative Strength Screams Bullish for This Tech Stock – YouTube
Stocks Are Worth Being in Right Now, Amoroso Says
Stocks Are Worth Being in Right Now, Amoroso Says – YouTube
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for May 11th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Investing in Nickel: Sprott
Special Report: The Case for Investing in Nickel Miners (sprott.com)
Three Breadth Indicators to Confirm a Bullish Market Trend: David Keller
Three Breadth Indicators to Confirm a Bullish Market Trend | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Are the “Magnificent 7” Stocks Unbeatable? Bob Hoye
Are the “Magnificent 7” Stocks Unbeatable? – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes For May 11, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes For May 11, 2024 – HoweStreet
Dow, Oil, Gold, USD, Solar Storm with Northern Lights: Mark Leibovit
This Week in Money – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Technical Notes for Friday
Italy iShares $EWI moved above $35.59 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
South Africa iShares $EZA moved above $17.42 extending an intermediate uptrend.
NXP Semiconductor $NXPI a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $262.06 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Costco $COST an S&P 100 stock moved above $785.82 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Coca Cola $KO an S&P 100 stock moved above $63.25 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Sun Life Financial $SLF.TO a TSX 60 company moved below Cdn$68.91 extending an intermediate downtrend. The company reported less than consensus quarterly results.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday and gained 14.60 last week to 58.00. It remains Neutral. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday and gained 5.80 last week to 78.40. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.69 on Friday, but gained 2.52 last week to 63.23. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.45 on Friday, but gained 3.44 last week to 69.96. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications