Pre-opening Comments for Thursday October 3^rd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 5 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Lockheed Martin gained $5.77 to $608.97 after announcing a 4.8% dividend increase and a boost in its share buyback program.

Levi Straus dropped $2.12 to $18.94 after trimming its earnings guidance.

Tesla dropped $2.87 to $246.15 after reporting less than consensus third quarter deliveries.

Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges moved lower. Chinese equity markets are closed for a holiday. Alibaba dropped $3.36 to $111.89.

 

EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for October 3^rd

Sell Rosh Hashanah and Buy Yom Kippur. See:

https://equityclock.com/2024/10/02/stock-market-outlook-for-october-3-2024/

 

Special Report

Don Vialoux was asked recently for a timely update comment on current equity markets. Follow to the end of report for comment.

 

Technical Notes

Healthcare Providers iShares $IHF moved below $56.08 completing a double top pattern. Healthcare SPDRs $XLV completed a similar pattern.

Exxon Mobil $XOM an S&P 100 stock moved above $121.76 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Bristol-Myers $BMY an S&P 100 stock moved above $52.98 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

 

Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 2^nd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 2^nd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 2^nd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Link offered by a valued provider

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Wednesday 10/2/24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH5cN2bjYps

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.80 to 77.20. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.60 to 77.60. It remains Overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.90 to 79.82. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.45 to 78.92. It remains Overbought.

 

Special Report

 

Editor’s Note: By coincidence, EquityClock also commented on the phenomenon. See link above.

 

Old stock market trading folklore says “Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kipper!” Historically, U.S. equity indices have recorded a brief downward correction during this period. This year the period is from the close on October 2^nd to October 12^th. What is likely to happen this year?

Chances are high that the folklore will come true again this year. Consider the following concerning events this week:

• Reporting on extent of damage from Hurricane Helene
• Extension of a labour strike at East Coast U.S. Ports that started last Tuesday
• Growing concerns about a military escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran
• Anticipation of a temporary slowdown in corporate earnings growth in the third quarter

A word of caution! Consensus for third quarter results by S&P 500 index companies calls for significantly lower than the 11.3% year-over-year earnings gain recorded in the second quarter. Third quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to slip to a 4.6% increase.

Fortunately, corporate news becomes favourable thereafter Consensus calls for earnings gains by S&P 500 companies to accelerate in the fourth quarter with a 14.9% year-over-year increase.

Another reason for short term caution for U.S. equity prices is their historic weakness during the first three weeks in October prior to a U.S. Presidential Election. Uncertainty about election results prompts higher than average volatility in U.S. equity prices. Not surprising, the Volatility Index ($VIX) spiked last week from 15.0% to 20.0%. Also note that U.S. equity indices have a history of moving higher from U.S. Presidential Election Day until at least June in the following year.

Short term stock market volatility has prompted investors to consider other investment opportunities, notably commodities and their related equities and Exchange Traded Funds. Commodity iShares (Symbol: GSG) broke to a two month high last week. Commodity prices reaching or exceeding two month highs last week included gold, silver, copper, natural gas, corn, wheat and soybeans. Strength in Commodity prices was prompted by news that the Peoples Bank of China has taken monetary steps to rejuvenate the Chinese economy. Chinese demand for commodities is expected to resume an upward trend.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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