Pre-opening Comments for Friday December 6th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points at 8:35 AM EST.
Index futures advanced 11 points following release of the November U.S. Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. November Non-farm Payrolls were expected to increase 220,000 versus a gain of 12,000 in October. Actual was 227,000. November Unemployment Rate was expected to remain unchanged from October at 4.1%. Actual was a 0.1% increase to 4.2%. November Average Hourly Earnings were expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in October. Actual was a 0.4% increase.
The Canadian Dollar added 0.05 to US71.12 cents following release of Canada’s November Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for November employment was a 27,000 increase. Actual was a 50,500 increase. Consensus for the November Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 6.6%. Actual was an increase to 6.8%.
Lulu Lemon advanced $11.19 to $356.00 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues. The company also announced a $1 billion share buyback program.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0014-2.png "clip_image001[4]")
DocuSign advanced $10.32 to $94.00 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0024-2.png "clip_image002[4]")
Rubrik jumped $10.15 to $64.00 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues. The company also announced a 55% increase in subscriptions.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0034-1.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for December 6th
Bitcoin has crossed above $100,000, but we have our eye on another cryptocurrency as a better bet through the months ahead. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/12/05/stock-market-outlook-for-december-6-2024/
Technical Notes
Johnson & Johnson $JNJ a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $149.56 extending an intermediate downtrend.
First Quantum Minerals $FM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$20.76 extending an intermediate uptrend.
George Weston $WN.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$236.30 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. The company owns a controlling interest in Loblaws
Loblaw Companies $L.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$188.77 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bank of Montreal $BMO.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$135.85 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Toronto Dominion Bank $TD.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$75.90 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 5th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 5th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 5th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Bitcoin’s breakout is a precursor for equities through year-end, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
Bitcoin’s breakout is a precursor for equities through year-end, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – YouTube
How Trump’s presidency could benefit Canada
How Trump’s presidency could benefit Canada – YouTube
TD Bank suspends three 2025 financial targets
TD Bank suspends three 2025 financial targets – YouTube
SPX Nears Key Inflection Point, Both Technically & Structurally: Schwab Network
SPX Nears Key Inflection Point, Both Technically & Structurally – YouTube
Expect an S&P 500 in the 0-10% range in 2025, says Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel
Expect an S&P 500 in the 0-10% range in 2025, says Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel – YouTube
Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 will reach $6,500 by year-end 2025
Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 will reach $6,500 by year-end 2025 – YouTube
Outlook for oil and energy markets BNN
Outlook for oil and energy markets – YouTube
Global economic outlook for 2025: Charles Schwab
Global economic outlook for 2025 – YouTube
OPEC+ extends production cuts: BNN
OPEC+ extends production cuts – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Thursday 12/5/24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzOrRaMDerE
Get Ahead of 2025 Stock Trends! Joe Rabil
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qadp5Wd0Kv4
Breakouts Galore! Keep These Stocks On Your Radar! Tom Bowley
Breakouts Galore! Keep These Stocks On Your Radar! – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.40 to 59.20. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.20 to 72.40. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged at 64.84. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.82 to 74.43. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 6th, 2024 at 4:22 pm
CAD – New 2024 low at 0.7065 after a weak Canadian jobs report has markets looking for a 50bp BOC cut next Wednesday while the Fed will likely cut 25bp. We will likely see 0.70 challenged soon as momentum drives CAD lower now that short-term support at 0.7090 was broken.
XLF – Looks like I was overly pessimistic a couple of days ago.
SPX – There were some calls for heavy resistance at 6100 leading to a pull-back but there doesn’t seem to be a huge appetite to sell in this market. My philosophy is to be in this market in what is working best but keep some cash in reserve in case we top out.
December 6th, 2024 at 4:24 pm
I should add that markets liked the US jobs report which helped to cement in the Fed 25bp cut this month giving more confidence that the rally will continue.
December 8th, 2024 at 4:46 pm
Larry
Yeah, the CAD to USD exchange is not looking great. Going to make my trip to Florida in March much more expensive, boo. Given the break we are likely going to a 6 handle on the exchange rate. My charting suggests 0.68 as a low some time next year. As for the market, I think we are going to keep running up till next summer when index levels are well beyond rich valuations. S&P 500 trending to run between 7500-9000 before a major pullback. So as you pointed out, need to be in the market heavy on the equity side until there is a change in trend. CA financial performance last week suggests we will continue higher this week with BMO, CM and RY to make all time highs, BNS break resistance at 80 and NA, TD potential support and start to recover back to recent resistance.