Pre-opening Comments for Friday December 20th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 30 points at 8:35 AM EST.
Today is Triple Witching Day, last trade day for December equity and index options and futures. Expect higher than average volume and volatility as positions are unwound and/or their time is extended. A record $6.6 trillion value of options and futures are scheduled to expire.
S&P 500 futures recovered 18 points following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for November core PCE Price Index was a 0.2% gain versus a 0.3% increase in October. Actual was a gain of 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis consensus was a 2.5% gain. Actual was a 2.4% gain. Consensus for November Personal Income was a gain of 0.4%. Actual was a gain of 0.3%. Consensus for November Personal Spending was a gain of 0.5%. Actual was a gain of 0.4%.
FedEx advanced $23.12 to $299.00 after announcing plans to spin off its freight division.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0014-7.png "clip_image001[4]")
Nike added $0.44 to $77.54 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter results.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0024-8.png "clip_image002[4]")
U.S. Steel dropped $2.00 to $29.72 after the company lowered fourth quarter revenue and earnings targets
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0034-6.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for December 20th
The trend of loan activity remains highly depressed as consumers refrain from taking on high cost debt to finance real estate and automobile purchases. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/12/19/stock-market-outlook-for-december-20-2024/
Technical Notes
20+ year U.S. Treasury Bond $TLT moved below $88.77 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Europe iShares $IEV moved below $52.20 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Healthcare SPDRs $XLV moved below $137.16 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Most of the weakness in healthcare came in the biotech sector. Biotech ETF $BBH moved below $156.36 and NASDAQ Biotech iShares $IBB moved below $131.50 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Global Timber iShares $WOOD moved below $75.18 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support extending an intermediate downtrend included Amgen, Vertex, Micron, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Philip Morris International, Danaher and Verizon
Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$42.47 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 19th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 19th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 19th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Relief Rally After Fed-Fueled Selling Not an All Clear: Kevin Green
Relief Rally After Fed-Fueled Selling Not an All Clear – YouTube
Expect to see sell signals if market doesn’t recover this week, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton
Market Update – Fed’s Inflation Shift: Market Impacts & Forecasts 12/19/24
Market Update – Fed’s Inflation Shift: Market Impacts & Forecasts 12/19/24 – YouTube
Fed Changes Course, Market Crash Ahead? Tom Bowley
Fed Changes Course, Market Crash Ahead? – YouTube
Stocks React To Fed Cut Guidance: Dan Nathan and Amanda Diaz
Stocks React To Fed Cut Guidance – YouTube
Santa Claus rally?
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The 20 day Barometer slipped 0.20 to 7.80, lowest level since April. No sign of a bottom yet!
The intermediate term (50 day) Barometer added 1.00 to 21.00. It remains Oversold.
The long term (200 day) Barometer slipped 1.00 to a 13 month low at 54.20. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The 20 day Barometer fell 1.37 to 7.31, lowest level since October 2022. No sign of a low yet!
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 2.28 to 22.37, lowest level since October 2023. It remains deeply oversold. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.74 to 57.08. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 20th, 2024 at 10:51 am
Odds look like we bottomed making a new low on SPX and then moving higher. Financials were really low and on sale – GS, JPM. The day is still long and we will see how it finishes. Cramer made a great point that historically when you have debt ceiling limit crises in Congress they always happen at market lows and you will do well to buy.