Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 14th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 29 points at 8:35 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures advanced 27 points following release of the December Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in November. Actual was a 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was a 3.5% increase versus a 3.0% increase in November. Actual was a 3.3% increase.
KB Homes advanced $5.10 to $69.18 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0014-3.png "clip_image001[4]")
Shake Shack added $1.16 to $122.75 after offering favourable 2025 guidance.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0024-5.png "clip_image002[4]")
Signet Jewelers dropped $16.58 to $57.46 after the company lowered its fourth quarter outlook.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0034-3.png "clip_image003[4]")
Aehr Test Systems dropped $3.27 to $12.72 after the company reported a loss in its fiscal second quarter.
![clip_image004[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0044-3.png "clip_image004[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for January 14th
Reversal candlesticks charted on Monday are suggesting rotation away from former Growth (Technology) darlings and towards Value laggards. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/01/13/stock-market-outlook-for-january-14-2025/
Technical Notes
Emerging Markets iShares $EEM moved below $40.86 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Nutrien $NTR.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$70.35 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to March 1st .The stock was upgraded by Piper Sandler.
Gasoline ETN $UGA moved above $65.49 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Suncor $SU.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$57.68 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to April 12th. See: https://charts.equityclock.com/suncor-energy-inc-tsesu-seasonal-chart
McDonald’s $MCD a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $281.77 completing a double top pattern.
Fortis $FTS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$58.32 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Hydro One $H.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below $43.39 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 13th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 13th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 13th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Are Markets Finally Starting To Act Rational? GuyAdami and Liz Young Thomas
Are Markets Finally Starting To Act Rational? – YouTube
JPM & BAC: Previewing Big Bank Earnings
JPM & BAC: Previewing Big Bank Earnings – YouTube
RBC’s Lori Calvasina: 6,600 S&P 500 year-end target can withstand a 5-10% pullback
RBC’s Lori Calvasina: 6,600 S&P 500 year-end target can withstand a 5-10% pullback – YouTube
Keith Richards market outlook on BNN
Keith Richards’ Market Outlook: Technical analysis – YouTube
Tech Tumble Continues Ahead of Big Earnings Week: Guy Adami and Dan Nathan
Tech Tumble Continues Ahead of Big Earnings Week – YouTube
Fed, inflation could overshadow earnings: Strategist
Fed, inflation could overshadow earnings: Strategist – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.40 to 19.60. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 3.20 to 54.00. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 9.87 to 29.15. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.24 to 61.88. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 14th, 2025 at 9:53 am
Bman/Van – I have been burned too many times by staying in too long. Maybe I finally learned my lesson. We are seeing a bit of a bounce this morning for SPX from the 100 day MA but I’m not letting it draw me into the market.
January 14th, 2025 at 1:50 pm
Larry/ON and Bman/Van – Any thoughts on a possible change in the market sentiment. Seems too bearish right now yet analysts still have high S&P year end targets. Tomorrow is a big day with US CPI #s release and earnings from JPM, C, and WFC. Been seeing on CNBC that the talking heads were saying many hedge funds wanted to take their capital gains in 2025 as opposed to last year.
January 14th, 2025 at 2:43 pm
Neil
I am thinking we will make a run at the 200 MA for the markets given the uncertainty from political events and somewhere in Feb or Mar make a bottom before the market turns up again. Don’t see this as a longer term sentiment change unless some of the more extreme policy suggestions are adopted. While the banks reporting should be good this momentum will be quickly lost not withstanding a poor CPI showing. Overall 2025 should be good, but it’s probably back end loaded.
January 14th, 2025 at 5:05 pm
Neil ON – I’m biased. I’m just reaching retirement age. I don’t need to take risk and really shouldn’t take risk. I just watched the Barometer weekly webcast. They have raised cash (15%. Market breadth has deteriorated for six weeks. They believe the market may be close to reaching a bottom but we are not quite there yet. They are worried about semis breaking major support and they are negative on tech stocks. Longer term they think the bull market is not over. I think we have a problem with very high trailing PE’s. We have a problem with rising bond yields which is more a product of rising deficit financing and a drop in foreign buying of US debt in favour of holding gold but Barometer thinks the market can handle it at the moment. On the other hand the US economy is doing well and recent inflation data has been benign. You can make money this year but the volatiliy may be high and it could shake you out of positions causing a loss. My idea would be to line up some low limit order bids on a number of favoured stocks in case we get a washout type sell-off. Favoured sectors now are US banks and commodities. JPM, GS, BAC, FFH, AEM, GLD, energy. Have a look at the performance of USCI lately but its overbought. I’m hiding in SGOV. I regret selling CLS.