Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday January 15th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 84 points at 8:35 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures added 63 points following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for the December Consumer Price Index was a 0.4 % increase versus a 0.3% increase in November. Actual was a 0.4% increase. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was a 2.9% increase versus a 2.7% gain in November. Actual was a 2.9% increase. Excluding food and energy consensus was a 0.3% increase versus a 0.3% gain in November. Actual was. 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis consensus was a 3.3% increase versus a 3.3% gain in November. Actual was a 3.2% gain. Consensus for the January Empire State Manufacturing Survey was -0.30 versus 0.20 in December Actual was -12.6.
JP Morgan Chase advanced $2.69 to $250.16 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
Wells Fargo gained $2.35 to $73.54 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
Goldman Sachs added $8.87 to $580.20 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for January 15th
Commodity prices (and the stocks with exposure) perking up as inflation expectations rise. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/01/14/stock-market-outlook-for-january-15-2025/
Technical Notes
Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH moved below $85.59 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Baker Hughes $BKR a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $45.17 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Airbnb $ABNB a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $127.23 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Biogen $BIIB a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $145.07 extending an intermediate downtrend
Canadian Tire $CTC.A.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $161.12 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Chip Regulations, AI Software & the Fateful Eight: Navigating Tech in 2025: Dan Nathan
Chip Regulations, AI Software & the Fateful Eight: Navigating Tech in 2025 – YouTube
‘Keep On Truckin”: Goldman Sachs’ playbook for 2025:
‘Keep On Truckin”: Goldman Sachs’ playbook for 2025 – YouTube
Not expecting any Fed rate cuts this year, says BofA’s Savita Subramanian
Not expecting any Fed rate cuts this year, says BofA’s Savita Subramanian – YouTube
Silverman: Seasonal volatility and market selloff are normal in January. RBC Capital
Silverman: Seasonal volatility and market selloff are normal in January. – YouTube
Huge headwind’ for the market: Rosenberg’s bearish call: David Rosenberg
‘Huge headwind’ for the market: Rosenberg’s bearish call – YouTube
John O’Connell’s Market Outlook: North American large cap stocks | Market Call
John O’Connell’s Market Outlook: North American large cap stocks | Market Call – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Tuesday 1/14/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSjm1SUvGUY
This Winter Weather Is About To Get Much Worse…
Natural gas prices advanced to a six month high.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfHprKvKQhk
S&P Momentum Barometer
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 5.00 to 24.60. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer advanced 3.40 to 57.40. It remains Neutral.
P.S. The short term (20 day) Barometer jumped 14.40 to 42.60
TSX Momentum Barometer
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 3.14 to 33.29. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 1.35 to 63.23. It remains Overbought.
P.S. The short term (20 day) Barometer advanced 7.62 to 40.81.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 15th, 2025 at 9:05 am
Great points Larry and Bman from yesterday. I agree with Bman on 2nd half of 2025 being better.
Looks like we got our numbers to somewhat reverse the negative sentiment. CPI came in better, and the banks killed their earnings estimates.
We’ll have to see if these premarket gains hold up or is it just algos being offside.
January 15th, 2025 at 4:50 pm
It was a bullish day particularly for US banks. If you look at SPX you can see that the downtrend line since early Dec has not yet been broken and we met resistance at the 50 day MA. The next couple of days will be crucial. That was a 3.7% peak to trough dip on SPX. We still haven’t had a 10% correction since Oct 2023. Since 1980 the market has declined 10% plus on average once every 1.2 years so one is due. We could still go a lot further without one. Place your bets.
January 16th, 2025 at 12:52 am
The more I read and understand about the coming change in the states, the more I feel like the pullback could be coming starting next week. The chances are increasing that Trump does not want to show weakness and if anything will go overboard on the tariffs. Bond rates while down today slowly rebounded throughout the day. BNN commentators have also lamented about not sell into today’s rally. It all adds to cash, cash, cash is king for the coming weeks. Agree Neil the next correction should be at least 10%, but could easily be 15%.