Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 21st
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 24 points at 8:35 AM EST.
The Canadian Dollar dropped 0.50 to U.S. 69.22 cents following news that tariffs on Canadian goods exported to the U.S. will take effect on February 1st
The Canadian Dollar eased an additional US 0.05 cents following release of Canada’s December Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was a 1.8% increase versus a 1.9% increase in November. Actual was a 1.8% increase.
MMM advanced $4.75 to a four year high at $145.78 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The company also offered positive revenue guidance for 2025.
DR Horton added $4.60 to $152.25 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0024-7.png "clip_image002[4]")
FifthThird Bank gained $0.56 to $44.90 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for January 21st 2025
Shining light on the Industrial sector into the first days of the Trump presidency. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/01/17/stock-market-outlook-for-january-21-2025/
Technical Scoop for January 20th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com . See:
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on fourth quarter earnings reports released by large cap U.S. companies. Results released to date (9% of S&P 500 companies) have exceeded consensus estimates.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Earnings and revenue gains are expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. Better than consensus fourth quarter results released last week prompted analysts to raise their earnings estimate to a 12.5% year-over-year increase (up from an 11.7% increase) The increase was prompted by higher than consensus quarterly results from major money center banks. Consensus for revenue gains was unchanged last week at 4.7%.
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and 4.9% revenue increase (versus a 5.0% revenue increase last week)
Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 changed slightly last week. Consensus for first quarter earnings called for an 11.6 % increase on a year-over-year basis (versus an 11.8% increase last week). Consensus for first quarter revenues was unchanged with a 5.1% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings was unchanged with an 11.6% increase and consensus for second quarter revenues was unchanged with a 5.0% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings increase was a 15.2%, down from a 15.3% increase last week. Consensus for third quarter revenues calls for a 5.7% increase, down from a previous 5.6% increase. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.7% (versus a previous 17.2% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 6.7%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.8% and revenues are expected to increase 5.9% (versus a previous 5.8% increase).
Above average earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly slower rate than 2025. Consensus calls for a 13.6% earnings increase and a 6.4% revenue increase.
Economic News This Week
Canada December Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday
Canada November Retail Sales are released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday
December U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase to 4.16 million units from 4.15 million units in November
January Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 73.2 from 74.0 in December.
Selected Quarterly Earnings Reports This Week
Another 43 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report (including six Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks for January 18th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Ross Clark: Markets. Eric Hadik: Market Cycles. Mark Leibovit: Inflation, Solar Cycles, Trump
Oh The Humanity: Bonds, Bitcoin & Bye Bye Hindenburg: Guy Adami and Danny Moses.
Oh The Humanity: Bonds, Bitcoin & Bye Bye Hindenburg – YouTube
The bullish case for gold continues: BNN
The bullish case for gold continues – YouTube
Could the S&P see gains following Trump inauguration? Yahoo Finance
Could the S&P see gains following Trump inauguration? – YouTube
CHART THIS: Epic Friday All-Mailbag Edition (1/17/25) David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UpsJ0Suv5w
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – Jan 18, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oy9oH4tc62Q
Jim Cramer looks at next week’s market game plan
Jim Cramer looks at next week’s market game plan – YouTube
Where will the S&P go following Trump’s inauguration?
Where will the S&P go following Trump’s inauguration? – YouTube
L.A. Fires to Hit More Than Insurance Industry: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/01/l-a-fires-to-hit-more-than-insurance-industry-bob-hoye/
Technical Notes
Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDU moved above 43,373.98 set on December 26th.
Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs $DIA moved above intermediate resistance at $433.51 set on December 26th.
MMM $MMM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $139.98 to a 39 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Morgan Stanley $MS an S&P 100 stock moved above $136.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bank of New York Mellon $BK an S&P 100 stock moved above $82.72 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added another 4.00 on Friday and jumped 26.00 last week to 42.20. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 9.60 last week to 60.40. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.41 on Friday and gained 2.43 last week to 41.44. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.
The long term Barometer added 0.90 on Friday, but slipped 0.17 last week to 63.96. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 21st, 2025 at 6:24 pm
Bman/Van, just wanted to let you know that I replied yesterday evening (Sunday) to your #5 on January 19th. This is what I said:
Thanks for your comments in #5.
Perhaps it was a wedge before Friday’s action. But now it looks like a downtrend channel to me. But of course, this could all change tomorrow (Tuesday) when the US markets open. Too many variables, can’t predict what will happen.
After such a big move up, TD is consolidating, which is normal. But if it can get above the September 16, 2024 high of 85.79, the downtrend is broken.