Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 3rd
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 26 points at 8:30 AM EST.
Southwest Airlines dropped $0.80 to $30.26 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Neutral to Under Weight
Chipotle advanced $1.41 to $55.38 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Overweight.
Intel added $1.21 to $24.94 on news that Broadcom and Nvidia could become potential manufacturing customers.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0031.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for March 3rd
March is one of the strongest months of the year for stocks with the S&P 500 Index rising by an average of 1.1% and gaining in 66% of periods over the past five decades. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/02/28/stock-market-outlook-for-march-3-2025/
Technical Scoop for March 3rd from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
The period of seasonal outperformance by the TSX Composite Index came to an end last week. Contributions into RRSPs until February 28th are a major reason for outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index.
Technical breakdowns below intermediate support last week by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index will require time for technical repair before moving higher into the traditional spring rally period. Broadly based U.S. equity indices have a history of moving lower into mid-March. Concern about reaching an agreement on the U.S. Federal Debt by March 14th adds to short term uncertainties. History is repeating. Patience by traders will be rewarded.
CNN’s Fear and Greed Index for U.S. equity markets dropped to 20% on Friday: Extreme Fear
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Fourth quarter results released during the past two weeks prompted analysts to raise quarterly estimates again: 97% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date: 75% have reported higher than consensus earnings and 63% have reported higher than consensus revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings prompted analysts to raise their fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings estimate to a 18.2% year-over-year increase, up from a 16.9% increase two weeks ago. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.3% from 5.2%.
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.4% earnings increase, up from 10.2% two weeks ago. Consensus for a revenue increase remained at 5.2%
Analyst estimates for earnings gains for 2025 were lowered again during the past two weeks. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.6 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from an 8.1% increase two weeks ago. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 4.3% increase, down from a 4.4% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.8% from a 9.9% increase two weeks ago. Consensus for second quarter revenues remained at a 4.7% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 14.3% increase, down from a 14.4% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues growth remained at a 5.5% increase. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.6%, down from a previous 12.9% increase. Fourth quarter revenues gains were unchanged at 6.1%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 12.1%, down from a 12.7% increase two weeks ago. Revenues gains were unchanged at 5.5%.
Earnings gains are expected to accelerate into 2026. Consensus calls for a 14.0% earnings increase, up from 13.9% two weeks ago. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.5% from a previous 6.4%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. January Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to drop0.1% versus a 0.5% gain in December
February ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to slip to 50.6 from 50.9 in January
February ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 53.0 from 52.8 in January.
U.S. January Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 1.5% versus a 0.9% decrease in December.
European Central Bank interest rate decision is released at 8:15 AM EST on Thursday
U.S. January Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to recover to $93.10 billion from $98.4 billion in December
January Canadian Trade Surplus released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to $1.40 billion from $0.70 billion in December
U.S. January Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.7% versus a 0.7% gain in December.
February Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to slip to 133,000 from 143,000 in January. February Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from January at 4.0%. February Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% gain in January.
February Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Nine S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Two TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 28th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 28th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 28th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes
India ETF $PIN moved below $23.48 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 100 stocks breaking to all-time highs included MMM $MMM on a move above $154.24 and Raytheon Technologies $RTX on a move above $131.76
AutoDesk $ADSK a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $279.84 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Broadcom $AVGO a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $196.23 extending an intermediate downtrend
CGI Group $GIB a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$105.78 and US$105.28 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Teck Resources $TECK.B.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$57.15 and Cdn$57.17 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for March 1st
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Why Stock Markets Could Drop Until Spring: Mark Leibovit
Why Stock Markets Could Drop Until Spring – HoweStreet
Tom Lee’s 2025 Playbook: Bears Sound Smart But Are Usually Wrong!
Tom Lee’s 2025 Playbook: Bears Sound Smart But Are Usually Wrong! – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 2/28/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMTY2eRcNGM
Hidden MACD SIGNAL? Key Trade Signals Explained! Joe Rabil
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-O3FrNTKno
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – March 1, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXhgLXebp0o
Growth Stocks Tumbling. Where to Find Safe Havens Now! Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4ApIzltGe8
3 Compelling Charts in the Financial Sector: David Keller
3 Compelling Charts in the Financial Sector | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
The Top is Confirmed and Now It’s Just a Matter of How Low We Go: Tom Bowley
Victor Adair’s Trading Desk Notes for March 1st
Trading Desk Notes for March 1, 2025 – HoweStreet
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 6.00 on Friday and gained 2.00 last week to 55.20. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and gained 0.20 last week to 60.00. It remains Neutral
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.73 on Friday and gained 1.82 last week to 47.73. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 0.45 on Friday and slipped 0.45 last week to 58.64. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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March 3rd, 2025 at 8:14 am
XLF – It should make a new high today. The one piece of fundamental advice I picked up long ago and I think it was from Bill Carrigan is that rising financials underpin a bull market. It’s a strange set up you have with extreme fear on market sentiment and SPX in the no man’s land between the 50 and 200 day MA’s yet rising financial stocks. If we saw financials roll over I would take that as a sign to head for the hills but right now the opposite is the case. It is possible that Trump goes too far and provokes a sell off so we always have a degree of uncertainty. Meanwhile European stocks are booming with EUFN outperforming.