Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday March 12th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 66 points at 8:35 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures added 22 points following release of the February U.S. Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a 0.3% increase versus a 0.5% gain in January. Actual was a 0.2% gain. Excluding food and energy, February CPI was expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in January. Actual was a 0.2% gain.
The House of Representatives passed extension of a debt ceiling bill expected to expire on March 14th. The bill extends government funding until September 30th.
Bank of Canada is expected to lower its lending rate to major banks at 9:45 AM EDT from 3.00% to 2.75%. Conference call is scheduled at 10:30 AM EDT.
Groupon added $0.48 to $10.25 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0014-4.png "clip_image001[4]")
Casey Stores advanced $10.29 to $389.00 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0024-4.png "clip_image002[4]")
Toll Brothers added $0.17 to $107.00 after increasing its quarterly dividend by 9%.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0034-4.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Market Comment for March 12th
Some of the broader benchmarks of the equity market are breaking below the lower limit of significant topping patterns, presenting downside risks back to the lows charted last August. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/03/11/stock-market-outlook-for-march-12-2025/
Technical Notes
TSX Composite Index moved below 24,250.02 set on December 20th extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF $RSP moved below $172.38 completing a double top pattern.
Industrial SPDRs $XLI moved below $130.45 completing a double top pattern.
S&P Retail SPDRs $XRT moved below $69.94 and $69.27 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Aerospace & Defense ETF $PPA moved below $113.31 completing a double top pattern.
Apple $AAPL a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $219.14 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Agnico-Eagle $AEM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$144.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Chart Master: Technical take on market pullback: Carter Worth
Chart Master: Technical take on market pullback – YouTube
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Yesterday’s selloff was an ‘overreaction’
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Yesterday’s selloff was an ‘overreaction’ – YouTube
Trump raises Canadian steel, aluminum tariffs to 50% in retaliation for Ontario energy duties
‘We will not back down, we will be relentless’: Ontario premier slams Trump tariffs
‘We will not back down, we will be relentless’: Ontario premier slams Trump tariffs – YouTube
Market Call: Eric Nuttall’s market outlook on energy stocks
Market Call: Eric Nuttall’s market outlook on energy stocks – YouTube
Katie Stockton on SPX Support, Dip-Buying & Current Bull Run
Katie Stockton on SPX Support, Dip-Buying & Current Bull Run – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Tuesday 3/11/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0LEGc_B9E4
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 9.60 to 33.60. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer plunged 5.00 to 41.80. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
The short term (20 day) Barometer plunged 13.00 to 27.80. It changed from Neutral to Oversold, on a move below 40.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.27 to 40.45. It returned to Neutral from Oversold on a recovery above 40.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 0.91 to 48.18. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
Short term (20 day) Barometer dropped 1.36 to 29.55. It remains Oversold. Daily downtrend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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March 12th, 2025 at 8:24 am
Excellent points Larry, Bman and Oldtymer.
Larry – I too saw the Siegel clip and am wondering why Americans are believing in this “bring back manufacturing” and “fair share trading” nonsense from Trump. Siegel also said it takes many years, maybe even multiple administrations to do it.
Oldtymer – That is a scary thought if thought if tougher politicians are needed to clean up the mess of previous ones. Makes me think that they’ll punish the savers since the broke cant pay back debts and the rich find a way to hide their wealth. As for funny businesses and ponzie schemes, it seems more of it is happening today and is being encouraged by the rich and politicians. Look at bitcoin, meme coins (even Trump’s wife has one) and other silly things out there.
Bman – IF USA is intent on doing stupid things like re-writing trade agreements and sanctioning their debt owned by others, then countries could walk away altogether. Trump is going after countires trying to de-couple from the USD, and trying to force new deals. We’ll have to see how this plays out.