The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on the FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates released on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 4.5%.
Extension of the U.S. Debt Ceiling to the end of September passed by the Senate on Friday night is expected to help U.S. equity prices on Monday morning.
Seasonal influences for U.S. and Canadian equity markets have a history of bottoming in mid-March prior to the spring rally into early May. Larry Williams released a video on Friday that supports that possibility for U.S. equity markets this year. Following is a link to Larry’s video:
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Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings gains for 2025 were lowered again. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.1 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from a 7.3% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth slipped to 4.2% from 4.3%. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.5% from 9.7% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at a 4.7%. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 12.0% increase, down from a previous 12.1% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues growth remained last week at 5.4%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.5%, down from 11.6% last week Fourth quarter revenues gains were unchanged at 6.1%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 11.5%, down from an 11.6% increase last week. Revenue gains were 5.4%, unchanged from last week.
Earnings gains are expected to accelerate into 2026. Consensus calls for a 14.2% earnings increase, up from 14.1% last week Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
February U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.6% versus a 0.9% drop in January. Excluding food and energy, February Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% drop in January.
March Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to drop 1.90 versus a 5.70 gain in February.
January U.S. Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% decrease in December.
February U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1.380 million units from 1.366 million units in January.
Canadian February Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.6% versus a 0.1% gain in January. On a year-over-year basis, February CPI is expected to increase 2.1% versus a 1.9% increase in January.
February U.S. Industrial Production released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.5% increase in January. February Capacity Utilization is expected to be unchanged from January at 77.8%.
FOMC’s decision on U.S. interest rate is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus for the Fed Fund Rate is unchanged at 4.50%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EDT.
March Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 9.4 from 18.1 in February.
U.S. February Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 3.94 million units from 4.08 million units in January.
U.S. February Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop 0.2% versus a 0.3% drop in January.
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Ten S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week (including one Dow Jones Industrial company: Nike) No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
Nil
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 15th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Energy Realities & the Twilight of U.S. Shale | Key Takeaways from CERAWeek | Eric Nuttall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=topc3tXU888
Sector Rotation Breakdown: Spotting Market Leaders Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMb2xzANhNw
What If Fort Knox Gold is Missing? Mark Leibovit
What If Fort Knox Gold is Missing? – HoweStreet
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 3/14/25
(Looking for a counter trend rally by U.S. equity markets)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVaGotdyr-U
New Uptrend Coming? Key Signals & Trading Strategies for Oversold Stocks: Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esQ0UT8MFGw
Three Reasons to Consider Gold: David Keller
Three Reasons to Consider Gold | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
A Tariff Caused Recession, Will Cause More Tariffs::Bob Hoye
A Tariff Caused Recession, Will Cause More Tariffs – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for March 15, 2025: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for March 15, 2025 – HoweStreet
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 5.80 to 34.20 on Friday. It remains Oversold. Early signs of a recovery?
The long term Barometer advanced 4.80 to 40.60 on Friday. It recovered to Neutral from Oversold on a move above 40.00.
Short term (20 day) Barometer jumped 10.00 to 29.00. It remains Oversold. Early technical evidence of a recovery?
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 5.91 to 45.00 on Friday. It recovered from Oversold to Neutral on a move back above 40.00.
The long term Barometer added 3.64 to 52.27 on Friday. It remains Neutral.
Short term (20 day) Barometer jumped 10.00 to $42.73 on Friday. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications