Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 12^th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 83 points at 8:30 AM EDT. Futures responded to news that China and the U.S. have reached a 90 day truce on tariff increases.

Notably higher on tariff news were technology stocks and related Exchange Traded Funds. Technology SPDRs (XLK) jumped $10.49 to $229.09.

Apple advanced $12.27 to $210.80 on news that the company is considering price increases on Apple products.

Transportation stocks and related ETFs also were notably higher. The Dow Jones Transportation Average iShares advanced $3.13 to $66.45

Pharmaceutical stocks and related Exchange Traded Funds were lower after President Trump proposed a reduction in U.S. drug prices to match international drug prices. Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) dropped $0.93 to $84.80.

EquityClock’s Market Outlook for May 12^th

Sentiment has corrected the bearish excesses that made it ideal to push back on (buy into) earlier in April, leaving the market in a less stable position that it has been in over the past month. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/05/09/stock-market-outlook-for-may-12-2025/

Technical Scoop for May 12^th from David Chapman and www.Enrichedinvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Focus this week is on U.S. inflation. Consensus for April CPI and April PPI calls for rising rates that likely will dampen trader enthusiasm.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the first quarter of 2025 increased again last week after reported results exceeded consensus: 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. First quarter results have benefitted from purchases prior to implementation of tariffs. Consensus for first quarter earnings gains calls for a 13.4% increase on a year-over-year basis, up from 12.8% last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth was unchanged at 4.8%.

Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter once again were reduced significantly. Analysts responded to additional company updates. More companies withdrew guidance due to growing uncertainty related to proposed tariffs. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 5.2% from 5.7% last week. Largest declines were recorded by the energy sector. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.0%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 7.4% from 7.8% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 4.7%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains dropped to 6.7% from 7.1% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains slipped to 5.2% from 5.3%.

For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 9.3%, down from 9.5% last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 4.9% from 5.0%.

For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 13.5%, up from 11.1% last week. Consensus for revenue gains was unchanged at 6.3%.

Economic News This Week

April U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% drop in March. Excluding food and energy, April CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% gain in March.

April U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.4% drop in March. Excluding food and energy, April PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% drop in March.

May Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to -7.90 from -8.10 in April May Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to -9.9 from -26.4 in April.

April U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to be unchanged versus a 1.5% gain in March.

April U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 77.9 from 77.8%.in March. April Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.3% drop in March.

April U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 1.370 million units from1.324 million units in March

May Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 53.1 from 52.2 in April.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 9^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 9^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 9^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Technical Notes for Friday

S&P/TSE Energy iShares $XEG.TO moved above Cdn$15.95 setting an intermediate uptrend

Sun Life Financials $SLF.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$87.60 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Quarterly results nicely exceeded consensus.

Monster Beverages $MNST a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $61.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for May 10^th

May 10 Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm

Expect Stock Markets to Rally Over Short Term: Mark Leibovit

Expect Stock Markets to Rally Over Short Term – HoweStreet

BCE CEO discusses Q1 results and cut to quarterly dividend

BCE CEO discusses Q1 results and cut to quarterly dividend – YouTube

Finding The Next $5 Trillion Company: Dan Benton’s Rules For Tech Investing In 2025

Finding The Next $5 Trillion Company: Dan Benton’s Rules For Tech Investing In 2025 – YouTube

Gene Munster’s Mag7 Review: AI Enthusiasm & Tariff Impacts

Gene Munster’s Mag7 Review: AI Enthusiasm & Tariff Impacts – YouTube

“Long stocks, short bonds” Goldman Sachs

“Long stocks, short bonds” – YouTube

Which Will Hit First: SPX 6100 or SPX 5100? David Keller

Which Will Hit First: SPX 6100 or SPX 5100? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

The market will continue to work its way higher, says CFRA’s Sam Stovall

The market will continue to work its way higher, says CFRA’s Sam Stovall – YouTube

Where the Market Goes Next: Key Resistance Levels + Top Bullish Stocks to Watch Now

Where the Market Goes Next: Key Resistance Levels + Top Bullish Stocks to Watch Now – YouTube

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.40 on Friday and gained 5.80 last week to 62.20. It changed last week from Neutral to Overbought by moving above 60.00. Daily uptrend was extended.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.80 on Friday and slipped 0.20 last week to 43.80. It remains Neutral.

The short term (20 days) Barometer peaked last week at 86.60 and dropped 2.00 on Friday to 77.20. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 4.59 on Friday and gained 15.14 last week to 74.77. It is Overbought. Daily uptrend was extended.

The long term Barometer added 1.83 on Friday and gained 7.34 last week to 61.01. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily uptrend was extended.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

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