Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday May 27th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 82 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
U.S. equity index futures responded favourably to news over the weekend that President Trump delayed tariffs on European Union imports until July 9th. Major European equity indices and related Exchange Traded Funds added 1.3%+.
The TSX Composite Index also responded to the news. Yesterday, the TSX Composite Index added 193.18 points to another all-time high at 26,073.13.
S&P 500 futures added 2 points following release of April U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM EDT Consensus was a 7.8% drop versus a 7.6% gain in March. Actual was a 6.3% drop. Excluding transportation orders (mainly Boeing orders) April orders were expected to drop 0.1% versus no change in March. Actual was a 0.2% gain.
Bank of Nova Scotia is expected to open mixed after reporting slightly lower than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. The Bank also increased its dividend and announced a share purchase program.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for May 27th
US Dollar Index pushing back below its prevailing multi-year trading range as the flight from domestic (US) assets resumes. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/05/24/stock-market-outlook-for-may-27-2025/
Technical Scoop for May 26th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
U.S. equity markets are following their traditional seasonal trend in a Post-Presidential Election year: a strong move in April/mid-May followed by a brief corrective phase until the beginning of July.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the first quarter of 2025 slipped last week: 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. Consensus for first quarter earnings gains calls for a 12.9% increase on a year-over-year basis, down from a 13.6% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth increased to 4.9% from 4.8%.
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter stabilized last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains increased to 5.1% from 4.8% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 4.0% from 3.9%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains increased to 7.2% from 7.0% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth was unchanged at 4.6%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains was unchanged last week at 6.1%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.1% from 4.9%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 9.1%, up from 9.0% last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 4.9% from 5.0%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 13.4%, unchanged from last week. Consensus for revenue gains remained unchanged at 6.2%.
Economic News This Week
April U.S. Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to drop 7.9% versus a 7.5% gain in March. Excluding transportation orders (mainly Boeing orders) April orders are expected to drop 0.1% versus no change in March.
FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.
U.S. first quarter GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop 0.3% versus a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter.
April Core PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus no change in March.
April U.S. Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% gain in March. April Personal Spending is expected to increase 02% versus a 0.7% gain in March.
March Canadian GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.2% drop in February.
May Chicago PMI released at 9:45 AM EDT on Friday is expected to improve to 45.1 from 44.6 in March.
May Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 50.8 from 52.2 in April.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Focuses this week are on fiscal second quarter results by Canada’s big banks and results released by Nvidia on Wednesday.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 23rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 23rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 23rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for May 24th
May 24 Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm
Wall Street Could Continue Sell Off: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/05/wall-street-could-continue-sell-off-mark-leibovit/
Is it Time for Trump to Back Off on Tariffs? Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/05/is-it-time-for-trump-to-back-off-on-tariffs-bob-hoye/
Trading Desk Notes for May 24th: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/05/trading-desk-notes-for-may-24-2025/
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson on Volatility, Policy Shocks & The Real Tariff Endgame
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson on Volatility, Policy Shocks & The Real Tariff Endgame – YouTube
S&P 500 Slide Explained: What Past Price Action Reveals About Market Dips: Frank Cappelleri
Technical Notes
Platinum ETN $PPLT moved above another resistance level at $100.00 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Intuit $INTU an S&P 100 stock moved above $712.35 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but plunged 17.40 last week to 61.60. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend has been established.
The long term Barometer dropped another 2.60 on Friday and plunged 11.60 last week to 46.80. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend has been established.
Short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 3.60 on Friday and plunged 33.60 last week to 52.80.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and added 0.44 last week to 78.34. It remains Overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
The long term Barometer added 0.46 on Friday and gained 1.38 last week to 67.28. It remains Overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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May 27th, 2025 at 1:25 pm
Larry
Keith thought near term bottom of 5600, but if that level does not hold we have more to fall. If you check out Valuetrend (Keith’s online business pages), there are a number of other videos and articles which add further information on his outlook and potential scenarios.
Given the market movement vs bond market, feeling a lot like 2007/2008 where we had a financial reset. If you check out the great depression 1929-1933 range, the US is using the same play book, just not sure due to technology and online how things play out.
Thanks
May 27th, 2025 at 2:33 pm
Bman/Van – The market doesn’t want to go down right now. SPX did a bit of gap fill and popped right up today. You just don’t know when this comes to an end. The momentum is extraordinary. I’ll have to go back and rewatch Keith’s video.
BNS – Up sharply on a weak quarterly report. I started buying a little last Thursday. They are not going to cut their div and you are getting close to 6%. It’s a little like BCE many years ago with some prospect of a turnaround of the business.
May 27th, 2025 at 3:02 pm
Larry, You are right on the weak report from BNS. They actually raised the divvy from 1.06 to 1.10 quarterly. Not sure where the talk of a divvy cut came from, but banks are solid unlike BCE and their debt load.
May 27th, 2025 at 4:07 pm
Larry
I hear you, bad earning with BNS and the stock is up. Trump pulls back from 50% tariff on EU and market up 3X over what it went down. The market at the moment is biased to the upside and ignoring/discounting any bad news. I am just saying be prepared, the way these stories end is usually bad. In the case of 08, it took over a year for the market to finally listen so I could be on the wrong side for an extended time. However, expect that the discounting of bad news will stop once the hard data finally arrives. Could be June, July or even as late as Q3, but it is coming.