The Bottom Line
Economic focus this week is on U.S. Core May PCE Price Index released on Friday
Earnings focuses this week are on FedEx on Tuesday and Nike on Thursday.
Political focus this week is on the “One Big Beautiful Bill”. Will Congress pass the Bill before the July 4th holiday?
Volatility in world equity markets is expected to spike Monday morning following news of the U.S. military strikes against Iran. The VIX Index is expected to open sharply higher above its previous close at 20.62%.
Seasonal focus is on extension of weakness in June by North American equity markets until the end of this week followed by start of the annual “summer rally” lasting until the end of July and frequently into early September.
Economic News This Week
May U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to slip to 3.95 million units from 4.00 million units in April.
May Canada Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.1 decrease in April
May US New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to drop to 692,000 units from 743,000 units in April.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday
May U.S. Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a 6.3% drop in April.
Next estimate for U.S. first quarter real GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to record a 0.2% drop versus a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2024.
May Core PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.1% increase in April.
May U.S. Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.08% increase in April. May U.S. Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.2 versus a 0.2% gain in April.
Canadian April GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected remain unchanged versus a 0.1% increase in March.
June Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 60.5 from 52.2 in May.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 20th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 20th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 20th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
Cisco $CSCO an S&P 100 stock moved above $66.06 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Take Two $TTWO a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $240.78 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for June 18th
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
Crypto’s Make Major Stride Towards Legitimacy: Mark Leibovit
Crypto’s Make Major Stride Towards Legitimacy – HoweStreet
Jeff Parent’s market outlook on BNN’s Market Call on Friday
The Fed is getting it wrong again: Tom Bowley
Undercut & Rally Pattern: Joe Rabil
Joe Rabil’s Undercut & Rally Pattern: From DROP to POP | Stock Talk with Joe Rabil | StockCharts.com
AI Stocks Ignite Again—Where Smart Money Is Heading Next: Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NntJuQJ5s-k
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – June 21, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTORiNnmHQI
RRG Alert Tech Vaults to ‘Leading’—Is XLK Signaling a New Rally?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O6lFtabpcI
Trading Desk Notes for June 21, 2025: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/06/trading-desk-notes-for-june-21-2025/
What’s The Best Way to Preserve Wealth In Uncertain Times? Bob Hoye
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday, but dropped 5.00 last week to 67.20. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday, but slipped 0.40 last week to 49.40. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.84 on Friday and dropped 5.53 last week to 85.25. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.46 on Friday and dropped 2.77 last week to 74.19. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.
Short term (20 days) Barometer plunged 8.76 on Friday and 11.98 last week to 61.75.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications