Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday June 25th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 9 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
FedEx dropped $4.51 to $224.51 after issuing fiscal first quarter guidance below consensus
Blackberry advanced $0.39 to US$4.72 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results. The company also offered positive guidance.
Microsoft gained $1.24 to $491.35 after Wells Fargo hiked its target price on the stock.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for June 25th
The key to this equity market for a successful summer rally period is oil, yields, and the dollar. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/06/24/stock-market-outlook-for-june-25-2025/
Technical Notes
NASDAQ 100 Trust Units (QQQ) moved above $539.40 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until August 13th. See https://charts.equityclock.com/invesco-qqq-trust-nasdqqq-seasonal-chart
Technology SPDRs (XLK) moved above $242.31 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until August 31st. See:
https://charts.equityclock.com/technology-select-sector-spdr-fund-nysexlk-seasonal-chart
Strength in XLK was led by semiconductor stocks. Semiconductor ETF (SMH) moved above $269.66 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences on real and relative basis are favourable until July 31st. See https://charts.equityclock.com/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor-etf-nysesmh-seasonal-chart
S&P/TSE Information Technology iShares (XIT.TO) moved above Cdn$70.77 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until the end of August. See:
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving above resistance extending an intermediate uptrend included Ford (F), Capital One (COF), JP Morgan (JPM), Dexcom (DXCM) and Autodesk (ADSK)
Commerce Bank (CM.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$96.45 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until October 27th. See
https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-imperial-bank-of-commerce-tsecm-seasonal-chart
Brookfield (BN.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved above $84.15 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 24th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 24th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 24th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
"Tweet or Two Away" from All-Time Highs, Watching Transports Ahead of Tariff Deadline
"Tweet or Two Away" from All-Time Highs, Watching Transports Ahead of Tariff Deadline – YouTube
Markets Rally On Ceasefire Hopes: Dan Nathan and Guy Adami
Markets Rally On Ceasefire Hopes – YouTube
There are more gains ahead for the markets in the second half, says Bespoke’s Paul Hickey
There are more gains ahead for the markets in the second half, says Bespoke’s Paul Hickey – YouTube
Housing market will have ‘worst year in decades,’ analyst says
Housing market will have ‘worst year in decades,’ analyst says – YouTube
Expect the S&P 500 to end the year around 5,500, says Stifel’s Barry Banniste
Expect the S&P 500 to end the year around 5,500, says Stifel’s Barry Bannister – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.00 to 76.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 2.00 to 54.40. It remains Neutral
Short term (20 days) Barometer jumped from 59.60 to 70.00. Once again, it has returned to Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.92 to 87.10. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 1.84 to 76.04. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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June 25th, 2025 at 7:00 am
XLK Tech – It went from being a market leader to being in a funk for a year. Like everything else it needed a consolidation period after an extended period of outsized gains. When you look at the chart what were people including me thinking in April? It really looked like the sky was falling. For XLK and the overall market we ended up with a rare V-bottom. A lot of us expected another drop. It’s all bullish now and the whole tariff crisis was one of the most difficult periods for me to figure out. I’m still thinking about PE valuation but the market sees forward earnings growth and seems comfortable wtih somewhat elevated multiples
June 25th, 2025 at 8:55 am
The other V-bottom in recent history would be the March 2020 pandemic crash.