Pre-opening Comments for Friday July 11th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 35 points at 8:35 AM EDT. Index futures turned lower last night after President Trump announced his intention to impose an additional 35% tariffs on imports from Canada effective August 1st
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US73.20 following two news events: President Trump announcement on Canadian import tariffs and Canada’s June Employment Report released at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for June Employment was a 900 increase versus an 8,800 increase in May. Actual was an 83,100 increase. Consensus for Canada’s June Unemployment Rate was an increase to 7.1%, up from 7.0% in May. Actual was a drop to 6.9%.
Bitcoin surged to an all-time high at US$117,766.71 following Trump’s announcement on Canadian tariffs.
Levi Straus added $1.15 to $20.88 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter results.
PriceSmart gained $5.80 to $108.50 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter results.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for July 11th
The abnormal decline in the US Dollar Index through the first half of the year has driven the above average gains in stocks year-to-date, but this tailwind may be fading. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/07/10/stock-market-outlook-for-july-11-2025/
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks
Don Vialoux is a guest on the July 12th show to be released at 8:30 AM Pacific time on Saturday. Topic is “North American Equity Markets Outlook for remainder of 2025”. After the show is released, click on
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/
Technical Notes
S&P Equal Weight 500 ETF (RSP) moved above $185.85 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until the end of July. See seasonal chart at www.equityclock.com
Southern Companies (SO) an S&P 100 stock moved above $92.87 to an all-time high.
Metals & Mining SPDRs (XME) moved above $70.23 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until the end of July. See seasonal chart at www.equityclock.com
BHP one of the world’s largest base metals producers moved above $51.05 and $51.48 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Amex Biotech ETF (FBT) moved above $162.08 extending an intermediate uptrend.
West Fraser Timber (WFB.TO) Canada’s largest forest product company moved above $US$77.86 completing a base building pattern. Other Canadian forest product stocks also moved significantly higher including Canfor (CFP.TO) and Interfor (IFP.TO). Interfor completed a double bottom pattern on a move above Cdn$13.67. Seasonal influences for the group are favourable until the end of August. See seasonality chart for each at www.EquityClock.com
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 10th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 10th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 10th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson: A weaker dollar is an under-appreciated tailwind for stocks
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson: A weaker dollar is an under-appreciated tailwind for stocks – YouTube
Jeff deGraaf: Don’t think there’s too much market complacency
Jeff deGraaf: Don’t think there’s too much market complacency – YouTube
Small Caps Are Rotating In — Here’s Why It Matters
Small Caps Are Rotating In — Here’s Why It Matters – YouTube
Fairlead’s Katie Stockton on market bounce from April lows and where we could still see a breakout
‘Huge tailwind’ for copper likely to continue as tariff threat looms: strategist
Expect summer rally with correction in September: Thorne
Editor’s Note: Call on North American equity markets is similar to Tech Talk’s call
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.40 to 74.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 1.80 to 64.40. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.35 to 81.69. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend has resumed.
The long term Barometer added 0.94 to 80.75. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications