The Bottom Line
North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from April to July was prompted by greater (i.e. front end loaded) economic activity prior to launch of tariffs on manufactured products. And now the “hang over”!
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
The second quarter earnings season continues to surprise: Another 160 S&P 500 companies released results last week for a total of 330 reports to date: 82% reported earnings above consensus and with 79% reporting revenues above consensus.
Analyst earnings estimates for 2025 for the second quarter increased substantially last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains jumped to 10.3% from 6.4%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 6.0% from 5.0%.
Earnings estimates for remainder of the year were unchanged. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 7.6%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 5.5% from 5.1%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains remained at 7.0%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.9% from 5.6%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 9.9% from 9.6%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.6% from 5.3%.
For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth slipped to 13.6% from 13.9%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. June Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to decline to $62.60 billion from $71.50 billion on May.
Canadian June Trade released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to record a $5.8 billion deficit versus a $5.9 billion deficit in May.
July ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to 51.5 from 50.8 in June.
U.S. Second Quarter Non-farm Productivity released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected increase 1.9% versus a 1.5% decrease in the first quarter.
U.S. June Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.3% drop in May.
Canadian July Employment released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to a 15,300 gain versus an 83,100 gain in June.
Selected Earnings News This Week
(Bolded companies are TSX 60 companies)
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 1st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 1st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 1st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for August 2nd
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Major Turning Point For Stocks, Launch Pad For Gold, Copper is Dead: TheTechnicalTraders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W78ay-jmRHA
6 Global ETFs Worth Watching Now: ValueTrendCanada
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZRI1Nx1mpE
Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Today’s jobs report makes it more likely Fed will cut in September
The Positive Impact of Tariffs on US Copper Shares: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/the-positive-impact-of-tariffs-on-us-copper-shares-mark-leibovit/
Are Stock Markets Setting Up for a Major Correction? Tim Wood
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/are-stock-markets-setting-up-for-a-major-correction-tim-wood/
Victor Adair’s Trading Desk Notes for August 2nd
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/trading-desk-notes-for-august-2-2025/
Is the Bubble of “Everything” About to Burst? Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/08/is-the-bubble-of-everything-about-to-burst-bob-hoye/
Technical Notes for Friday
S&P Oil and Gas Exploration SPDRs (XOP) moved below $124.36 completing a double top pattern. Responded to a $2.00 drop in WTI crude oil.to US$67.26 per barrel.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking intermediate support setting downtrends on Friday included Monster Beverages, Schlumberger, U.S. Bancorp, UnitedHealth Group, Linde, Honeywell, CDW Corp, Salesforce.com, DocuSign, Intel, PayPal, Workday and Zoom
CGI Group (GIB.A.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$131.96 to a 21 month low extending an intermediate downtrend.
Constellation Software (CSU.TO) a TSX 60 stock moved below $4,756.02 completing a double top pattern.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.40 on Friday and plunged 24.00 last week to 48.80. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday
The long term Barometer dropped 2.80 on Friday and dropped 12.00 last week to 55.00. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 5.00 on Friday and plunged 33.80 last week to 36.20. It changed last week from Overbought to Oversold on a move below 40.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 11.32 on Friday and plunged 17.45 last week to 54.25. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.89 on Friday and dropped 3.77 last week to 79.72. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned down
The short term (20 days) Barometer dropped 6.60 on Friday and plunged 32.07 last week to 35.38. It changed last week from Overbought to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications